Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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159 FXUS63 KPAH 242002 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 302 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect Tuesday afternoon for all but the southeast quadrant of the region, as heat indices are expected to reach 105 degrees or greater. - Chances of thunderstorms are forecast Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. A stray strong to severe storm is possible with gusty winds the main threat. - After a brief respite from the heat and humidity Thursday, heat indices will climb well above 100 degrees throughout the area Saturday. Another round of thunderstorms is possible sometime between Friday night and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 We have expanded the Heat Advisory eastward through the Purchase Area, through much of southern Illinois and into the Evansville area in Indiana. NBM temperatures and dewpoints yield 105 degree heat indices in these areas, with the worst conditions expected in the original Advisory area. Outside of the Advisory, heat indices will be 100 to 105 degrees. There is some potential that convection late tonight and Tuesday morning could prevent the extreme heat and humidity from developing, but confidence is not great enough to alter our thinking for the Heat Advisory. A large MCS is expected to surge eastward through the western Great Lakes tonight. Warm advection ahead of it could squeeze out a few showers tonight in the north as the GFS shows, but the chance is too low to mention in the forecast at this time. The bigger concern is the potential for an outflow boundary to sag close enough to the region to focus thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon, mainly over southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. The larger-scale cold front will push through the entire area Wednesday, bringing an end to the extreme heat and convective chances. Instability Tuesday will be strong and could also be healthy ahead of the cold front Wednesday, if the environment has not been muddled by previous convection. Wind fields will be weak, so we will be looking at pulsy storms with some limited potential for damaging winds. Severe storms will be most likely in the heat of the day both days. Confidence in the timing details of convection Tuesday through Wednesday is not great. We should have a very nice dry day Thursday with lower temperatures and humidity. South winds will return on Friday and temperatures will climb back into the lower 90s. Southwest winds will bring very humid air across the region for Saturday, when heat indices will be in the 105-110 range for the entire area. There are similar convective concerns Friday night through the weekend as we discussed for the mid-week front, but the upper ridge will be stronger and could keep most of the convection north of the region through Saturday. Whenever convection can develop across the Quad State this weekend, strong instability with relatively weak wind fields will likely keep the severe threat at marginal levels with mainly a damaging wind threat. It appears that a cold front will eventually pass through the Quad State sometime Sunday or Sunday night, so next Monday should be another pleasant day. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The TAFs are VFR. Southwest winds may gust 15-20kts at times in the late morning at the northern sites. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ075>078- 080>086-088>090-092>094. MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114. IN...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for INZ081-085-086. KY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KYZ001>009. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...DRS