Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
563 FXUS63 KPAH 210712 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 212 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily heat and humidity with Heat Indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s will peak Tuesday around 105 degrees. - Best rain chances will accompany the approach and passage of cold fronts Sunday and Wednesday. The Wednesday fropa will bring an end to the daily oppression of heat/humidity as slightly cooler and drier air arrives for the week`s end. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 High pressure at the surface and aloft strengthens its grip overtop the PAH FA today as a 596DM H5 High centers over the TN Valley. Resultant columnar subsidence should win out over the diurnal flare of instability with highs in the low-mid 90s and dew points in the upper 60s to around 70F creating peak HI`s generally 95-100 degrees. The surface and upper ridge axes shift south and east heading into the weekend. A low pressure system will race across the Great Lakes and punch a cold front thru the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley Sunday. Its approach introduces pops here as early as late Saturday night, and its passage during peak heating/instability Sunday afternoon-evening will help pops rise into the mid chance category, even on its trailing edge. As a result of this synoptic timing, temps are a little higher Saturday in the mid 90s, with lower half 90s slated for Sunday`s more clouds/pops. But dew points in the upper 60s to near 70 Saturday pool in the lower 70s Sunday, so effective peak HI`s range from the upper 90s to lower 100s both weekend days. After fropa, high pressure reasserts its grip for the beginning of the new work week, with high temperatures responding by rising into the mid-upper 90s. With dew points still around or in the 70s, HI`s threaten Advisory headlines around 105 degrees by Tuesday. Another cold front`s approach and passage Wednesday will help pops spike before bringing an end to the sustained daily heat/humidity by week`s end. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Today will be much like yesterday, with prone locational patchy fog offering potential restrictions to VSBYS til daybreak, then VFR conditions prevailing thereafter as high pressure firms its grip/control on our sensible weather. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...None. && $$