Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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523 FXUS61 KPBZ 231138 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 738 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An active weather pattern is expected through most of the week. Even with the clouds and threat of rain, temperatures will remain warm through the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Showers, isolated thunderstorms expected today. - Temperatures remain above normal. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A cold front will slowly progress eastward through the region this morning. Most of the deep moisture and best upper level support will be ahead of the front. With this setup, would expect much of the rain to be light. The atmosphere will not destabilize very much ahead of the boundary, but there will be increasing wind shear so thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. The front will exit to the east early this afternoon, and there will be brief ridging aloft as the early morning shortwave moves over eastern PA. Would expect the rain threat to lessen this afternoon, and we may dry out enough to lose the lower cloud cover as well. Above normal temperatures are anticipated today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Rain chances continue through mid-week. - Temperatures remain warm. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Height falls are expected on Tuesday as another shortwave trough swings through the region during the afternoon. This wave looks to be stronger than today`s and with southwest flow aloft, ahead of an upper low that will dig into the midwest, gulf moisture will stream in over the region. Another round of showers and possibly thunderstorms is expected Tuesday. Temperatures Tuesday will be above normal again. Little change on Wednesday as a large trough settles in over the Midwest. The area will remain on the eastern side of the upper level system, meaning gulf moisture will continue streaming northward over the region. Upper level waves will swing through the trough and eject northeastward in the southwest flow aloft. This will mean the threat for showers and possibly storms will continue through Wednesday. Temperatures Wednesday remain above normal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Uncertainty increases greatly for the latter half of the week with potential tropical low interaction. - Rain chances will continue through the end of the week. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A weak boundary may pass through the area sometime Thursday, but seeing significant spread in the ensembles on the timing which will impact when we lose the rain chances. The central CONUS trough digs deeper on Thursday and looks to cut off from a northern stream trough, but ensemble clusters exhibit quite a bit of disagreement here. A faster solution cuts off rain chances overnight Wednesday night while others suggest a slower progression and maintain the rain all the way through Thursday night. Meanwhile, the remnants of a potential tropical system in the Gulf may interact with the trough. The highest probability scenario is that the northern stream trough is through by late week. A few ensembles still lag the passage, with some higher QPF totals possible across the southeastern half of the forecast area. Another cluster of ensembles has the system moving into the Midwest behind the trough. Will stick with NBM given all of the uncertainty. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A slow moving cold front is currently situated just west of ZZV. A number of sites have already fallen to IFR/MVFR/LIFR with passing rain from our overnight disturbance. However, with rainfall rates weak over the last 12 hours and dry air noted in the PIT 00Z sounding with lingering across the region, creating VFR conditions noted in some spots despite the rain showers. Cigs are expected to bounce between VFR/MVFR/IFR between 14Z to 18Z as warm air returns from the southwest with incoming disturbance over Missouri. Cigs are forecast to lift to VFR after 18Z, save DUJ and FKL, but coverage is expected to remain broken. Ample low moisture and reinforced saturation tomorrow night likely means another night of at least MVFR restrictions are ahead for most ports. More rain arrives Tuesday. .Outlook... Rain and restriction chance continues into Tuesday with another low pressure center. Unsettled weather is then possible through mid-week. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...22 NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM...MLB/Milcarek AVIATION...Hefferan/Milcarek