Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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742 FXUS61 KPBZ 240339 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1139 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will gradually end tonight after the passage of a cold front. Temperatures drop to near normal on Monday before increasing, yet again, next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Showers/thunderstorms ending - Cooler temperatures tonight. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A surface cold front was near the southern PA/WV border, westward through SE OH. Showers and a few thunderstorms south of the boundary will continue to track out of the area overnight as FROPA occurs. Mainly dry weather is then expected for the rest of the night after FROPA, as surface high pressure builds in under an approaching upper trough. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Mainly dry weather returns - Seasonable temperatures return Monday, warmer Tuesday. ------------------------------------------------------------------- The upper trough will cross the NE CONUS Monday, as surface high pressure builds in underneath. This should result in dry and seasonable weather. Mainly clear skies and light wind should result in radiational cooling Monday night. Most locations will see lows in the 50s. Patchy river valley fog is also expected. Rising 1000-500mb heights and warm advection should return temperatures to above seasonable levels on Tuesday. A couple of MCSs are expected to develop across the Midwest region Tuesday night. Some operational models brush these complexes near the Upper Ohio Valley region late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Given the placement of the low level jet upstream, and the tendency for MCSs to follow the 1000-500mb thickness pattern. As the 12Z mesoscale guidance begins to come in, it has been a bit more bullish on convective development in central Michigan. Its also suggests that convective elements deteriorate as they head southeast into ridging and drier air, but it will warrant watching Tuesday and Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Thunderstorms likely with a Wednesday cold front - Cooler Thursday, followed by a warming trend - Dry Thursday and Friday, before another front approaches Saturday ------------------------------------------------------------------- The next shortwave trough, and associated surface cold front, is expected to approach and cross the region on Wednesday, with showers and thunderstorms likely. Strong to severe storms will be possible, if current model projections of shear and instability levels verify. This will also largely depend on a favorable arrival time. High pressure is expected to return dry weather to the region Thursday and Friday. Seasonable temperatures are expected Thursday, before a return to above average readings on Friday as heights rise and warm advection occurs. The next approaching cold front will return shower and thunderstorm chances back to the forecast at the start of the weekend. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of an advancing cold front this afternoon and evening (favoring 19z-00z). Storm strength may be dependent on degree of surface heating, but risks exist for damaging wind and small hail along with the typical vsby/cig restrictions in heavier rain. Isolated showers may persist after FROPA this evening given delayed passage of the upper level trough axis. However, its crossing overnight will foster cool, dry advection that will end shower activity and begin to erode post-frontal stratocu. Ensemble models vary in degree/timing/cover of that clearing, with residual boundary layer moisture favoring pockets of low VFR to MVFR cigs near FKL/DUJ/LBE/MGW. Building high pressure will support VFR and reduced afternoon CU Monday. Expect deeper mixing and residual surface gradients to foster 20-30kt NW afternoon wind gusts. .Outlook... Ensembles hint at potential MCS moving SE out of the Great Lakes sometime between Tuesday night through Thursday morning ahead of the next upper level shortwave. This is will need to be monitored for terminal impacts. Thereafter, high pressure and ridging aloft should support multiple days of dry weather. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WM/Milcarek NEAR TERM...WM SHORT TERM...WM/Milcarek LONG TERM...WM/Milcarek AVIATION...Frazier