Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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105 FXUS61 KPBZ 110049 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 849 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Below average temperatures are expected through early Tuesday under an upper-level troughing pattern. Rising temperatures and dry weather will characterize the mid to late week period. Thunderstorm chances may return Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Clear conditions tonight will drop temperatures into mid-upper 40s with a lingering trough; pockets of fog may develop. -------------------------------------------------------------- The shortwave over the region will begin to exit into the overnight. The upper low will remain over the region for at least another day. Showers associated with lift and daytime heating have finally dissipated. The northwest flow will keep clouds in place at least through the evening before beginning to clear out overnight. Thus, the clearing clouds will allow for radiational cooling. Probabilities range between 30% to 50% that MinT`s will be less than or equal to 45F. Given the chance of late clearing, lows may dip into the mid to upper 40s to around 50. Higher probabilities are noted in eastern Ohio where persist clear conditions are likely. The areas in OH are the most likely to experience fog but even here, where clearing is more certain, the chances of 5 miles or below is only about 30%. Will leave fog out for now as it will mostly be confined into the valleys. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Cool conditions persist into Tuesday. - Ridging early Wednesday morning returns near to above average temperatures across the region. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Dry, quiet weather is expected Tuesday into Wednesday under weak ridging. Temperatures will likely be near-average Tuesday as cold air exits east. Wednesday, temperatures will trend above the climatological average with sufficient warm advection from the southwest. The passing trough well to the north along the the northern Great Lakes significantly helps to lessen the impact of the building ridge keeping temperatures through Wednesday night at normal or just below. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Warm, dry conditions are expected Thursday. - Long range models are hinting that thunderstorm chances return Friday, there is a chance that a few storms could be considered strong to severe. - Models have been consistent that hot conditions are favorable late week into early next week. ------------------------------------------------------------------- With a ridging building to our south and elongated trough over central Canada, zonal flow will advance warm conditions over the Midwest into the region. Confidence is high that upper-80s to near 90s will be observed at observation sites across the region. Minus the heat index values in the low-90s for portions of Ohio, no hazardous weather is expect Thursday. Trough advancement out of the north will return the chance of rain showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening. Several runs of the long range models suggest convection may be organized along the cold front. Probability of organized convection (500J/kg and 30kts of effective shear) is 20% to 40% Friday evening with this noted disturbance. Numerous long range models have been consistent that a ridge axis will build across the CONUS and return warm, moist conditions to the region. Heat impacts will need to be monitored. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR cloud deck is beginning to scatter across Ohio and will scatter across our area this evening with frontal passage. Clouds will linger longest northwest (FKL/DUJ) of PIT. Given the approaching cool air mass, diminishing wind, and relatively warm rivers, some patches of mainly valley-based fog are possible. NBM restriction probabilities favor locations south of PIT overnight, as well as to the north as a secondary maximum. Any fog should lift by 13Z Tuesday morning, though MVFR cigs are still possible at FKL/DUJ through the morning hours. Scattered cumulus is expected during the late morning/midday hours elsewhere. Northwest wind will generally remain light at under 10 knots. .Outlook... VFR conditions are expected under building high pressure Tuesday through Thursday. Restrictions in showers and thunderstorms return Thursday night and Friday with another passing disturbance. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger NEAR TERM...Shallenberger SHORT TERM...Hefferan/Shallenberger LONG TERM...Hefferan AVIATION...Rackley/CL