Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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291 FXUS61 KPBZ 080523 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 123 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered showers are expected Sunday with a weak upper level disturbances. Otherwise, dry weather is anticipated with temperature fluctuating between near and below normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Clouds will continue to dissipate this morning under high pressure. - Quiet weather and near-normal temperatures are expected Saturday. -------------------------------------------------------------- Warm air, associated with building ridge over Indiana/western Ohio, will continue to track east early this morning and dissipate any lingering clouds across the region. Quiet, dry, and near-normal temperatures are expected to prevail into Saturday evening under high pressure. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - A passing shortwave and cold front will return light rain to the region Sunday. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Clouds will increasing from west to east tonight amid moist advection Saturday night into early Sunday. A shortwave advance and its associated cold front will advance into the region Sunday. Precipitation chances peak ahead of the boundary Sunday morning; this timing should keep instability generation minimal and thus lightning/severe probabilities low. The lack of strong column moistening and weak overall ascent should keep QPF totals low as most of the region has less than 20% probability of exceeding 0.25". Northwest PA and its closer proximity to upper jet stands the best chance for seeing slightly higher amounts, but probabilities of exceeding 0.5" are only 10%. Shower activity will become more isolated through the afternoon as the shortwave exits as dry advection commences in its wake. Clearing overnight skies and cold advection effects will be muted by elevated wind, resulting seasonable low temperature. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Persistent upper troughing will support below seasonable temperature and low probability rain chances Monday. - Temperature moderation likely through the weak under influence of high pressure. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Additional shortwave movement within Great Lakes troughing will reinforce the seasonably cool temperature Monday while generating low probability / isolated afternoon showers favoring northwest PA and the higher terrain. Clearing skies plus high pressure Monday night will create the coolest temperature of the weak, as lows Tuesday morning approach 10 degrees below average. Ensembles favor gradual height rises through much of the work week as surface high pressure centers along the Atlantic Coast. Expect a continuation of dry weather and temperature rising near to above seasonable averages through Thursday. Variation remains high on the late-week period, with models diverging into ridging versus troughing solutions. A ridging outcome would translate to above normal temperature and low probability afternoon thunderstorms while troughing would translate to falling temperature and more widespread convection along a passing cold front. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR is expected through this evening as flat ridging builds across the Upper Ohio Valley region. A few cumulus, and increasing cirrus, clouds are expected through the day ahead of the next approaching cold front. This front will spread showers and MVFR restrictions across the area late tonight as it approaches and crosses the region. Mixing will result in west wind gusting up to 20kt during the daylight hours today, before diminishing this evening. .Outlook... VFR should return by late Sunday morning behind the exiting cold front. Additional restrictions and scattered showers are expected again late Sunday and Monday with another crossing upper trough. VFR returns Tuesday and Wednesday under building high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hefferan NEAR TERM...Hefferan SHORT TERM...Frazier LONG TERM...Frazier AVIATION...WM