916
FXUS61 KPBZ 040459 AAB
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1259 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Aside from an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm across
the higher terrain, dry conditions are expected today. Rain
returns Wednesday into Thursday with periodic rain chance
thereafter. Temperatures remain above average through much of
the week, with a cooling trend expected into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Mainly dry weather continues today.
- Afternoon shower or storm possible in the higher elevations.
- Temperatures continue to trend up.
--------------------------------------------------------------

No major changes for the overnight period.

Ridge will be centered over the region today, and as a
shortwave trough drifts over the upper Midwest, minor
amplification of the ridge is expected in response. Low-level
southeast flow this afternoon could spark an orographically
produced shower or storm over the higher elevations of West
Virginia. If storms do develop, outflows could push some
development further west. Another warm day with high temperatures
close to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday into Thursday
  with a crossing cold front.

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Eastern ridge will flatten and be forced eastward as a
shortwave trough moves across Ohio late Tuesday night and then
across the rest of the forecast area Wednesday morning. The
risk for showers and possibly a thunderstorm will increase as
the wave crosses the region. Seeing some differences in model
solutions on what happens once the wave exits and how fast the
next wave will arrive. This will be important for the risk for
showers and storms that may develop ahead of a cold front which
is slated for a Wednesday night passage.

The most focused period of convection looks to be Wednesday
evening and overnight. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
will contribute to increased sfc-based instability during the
afternoon/early evening. Latest CSU ML continues to support a
low-end severe weather (wind) threat, but potential will hinge
on timing of convection and arrival of the front. Additionally,
Wednesday cloud cover and the threat for activity well ahead of
the front will play a role as well. For now, SPC still has us
outlooked in a General Thunder only, but we will continue to
monitor.

A break in the activity is expected Thursday morning before a
second cold front crosses in the afternoon. This will return the
risk for showers and storms Thursday afternoon/evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:


- Periodic showers with cooler conditions are expected into the
  weekend with a slowly crossing upper-level low.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

An upper-level low will dig across the Great Lakes Friday and
into New England by Saturday. This will keep cooler and showery
conditions in the forecast as we head into the weekend. While
there is low confidence on pinpointing the best timing of these
showers each day, ensembles do agree on the general showery
pattern with upper troughing persisting through the weekend and
possibly into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Shortwave ridging will maintain VFR conditions for most airports
through today. The exception is FKL and MGW, where MVFR fog is
possible early Tuesday morning with slightly more favorable
temperature/dew point spreads. THe latest ensemble guidance
has trended lower on probabilities of MVFR visibility for other
airports, and this appears reasonable with the recent mixing
and lower dew points.

After any fog dissipates early this morning, expect scattered cu
with cirrus above.

.Outlook...
Restriction potential returns Wednesday and Wednesday night in
showers and possible thunderstorms with a crossing cold front.
Periodic restrictions are then possible Thursday through
Saturday as a slow moving upper low drifts across the Great
Lakes region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rackley/22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...Rackley/22
LONG TERM...Rackley/22
AVIATION...WM