Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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961 FXUS61 KPBZ 031345 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 945 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Aside from an isolated shower or thunderstorm across the higher terrain, dry conditions are expected through Tuesday. Rain returns Wednesday into Thursday with periodic rain chance thereafter. Temperatures remain above average through much of the week, cooling slightly into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather with temperatures 10-13 degrees warmer than observed Sunday. - An isolated shower/thunderstorm or two is possible across the WV ridges this afternoon. -------------------------------------------------------------- Mid-Morning Update... An isolated shower or two was noted on radar across Preston County, WV this morning. Mid-level capping should prevent more than a few isolated showers/thunderstorms popping up across the ridges through the afternoon, but given the chance, re-added low-end 15-25% PoPs through the afternoon for the higher terrain -- mainly across Preston/Tucker. Dry conditions are expected elsewhere. Previous... Upper ridging will build over the region today, resulting in dry conditions and highs at least 10 degrees warmer than Sunday. Clouds should quickly diminish late morning into the afternoon, leaving plentiful sunshine for the area. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather continues through Tuesday. - Temperatures continue to trend up. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Upper ridging continues to be the dominant feature Tuesday, maintaining dry conditions and pushing temperatures into the upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday into Thursday with crossing low pressure. - Periodic showers with cooler conditions are expected into the weekend with a slowly crossing upper-level low. ------------------------------------------------------------------- An unsettled period is expected Wednesday into the weekend as an upper level low slowly crosses from Manitoba through the Great Lakes. The most focused period of convection looks to be Wednesday afternoon and overnight with a crossing shortwave and sfc dewpoints in the upper 60s contributing to increased sfc-based instability during the afternoon/early evening. Latest CSU machine learning progs support a small probs support a low- end severe weather (wind) threat. Brief clearing is expected behind the front, but the upper- level low will dig across the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday and into New England by Saturday. This will keep cooler and showery conditions in the forecast for the second half of the week. While there is low confidence on pinpointing the best timing of these showers each day, ensembles do agree on the general showery pattern persisting into the weekend. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Fog and stratus in place this morning are presenting a variety of flight conditions from VLIFR to MVFR. As daytime heating commences, flight conditions are expected to improve to MVFR areawide by mid-morning, and then to VFR by midday as low-level restrictions evolve into a rising cumulus deck. These cumulus will then slowly dissipate by late afternoon under weak surface ridging. There is a small but non-zero chance of an isolated shower or storm over the WV terrain. Another round of fog is possible tonight, but increased mixing as compared to this morning may prevent widespread formation. Will evaluate this threat over the day. .Outlook... VFR conditions are favored until the next low pressure system generates widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. Fog, favoring the river valleys, could occur near dawn prior to that next system. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rackley NEAR TERM...Rackley SHORT TERM...88 LONG TERM...88 AVIATION...Frazier/CL