615
FXUS61 KPBZ 060354 AAA
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1154 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight. Unsettled
weather will remain into the weekend. Cooler temperatures
return Friday and hold through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers and thunderstorms tonight with a crossing cold front
- Marginal potential for severe storms
- Locally heavy rain where training occurs
--------------------------------------------------------------

Midnight Update...
The latest meso analysis shows ML CAPE continues to slowly wane
across the region. PBZ VAD wind profiles indicate a veering wind
profile in the low levels. We will continue to monitor for any
storm rotation over the next couple of hours, though this
potential should also gradually diminish overnight as surface
wind becomes more southerly, resulting in a reduction in
helicity.

We will also monitor for any training of showers and
thunderstorms overnight, which could result in a localized flash
flood potential. The latest meso data also shows moisture
transport vectors bringing in higher precipitable water values
overnight, which could enhance rainfall rates.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Risk for scattered showers/storms continues on Thursday with
  the passage of a deep trough.
- Continued activity on Friday with cooler temperatures.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Lingering showers/storms will end Thursday morning as the cold
front exits to the east. A deep shortwave trough is expected to
swing through Thursday afternoon. This will likely return
showers and storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Thursday
afternoon seems to be a period to watch for as well with MU CAPE
values between 500 and 700 J/Kg with nearing 50 knots of shear.
SPC has a general thunder this day but there certainly could be
a strong storm with this passing post frontal trough.

Just above-average highs expected Thursday.

Highly anomalous upper level low will move across the Great
Lakes on Friday. Waves of energy will swing around the low as
will much cooler air. This will keep our weather unsettled on
Friday. Temperatures should be noticeably cooler Friday with
plenty of clouds and scattered showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Periodic showers with cooler conditions are expected through
  the weekend with a slowly crossing upper-level low.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

The upper-low will dig into New England Friday night into
Saturday. This will keep cooler and showery conditions in the
forecast as we head into the weekend and into early next week.
While there is low confidence on pinpointing the best timing of
these showers each day, ensembles do agree on the general
showery pattern with upper troughing persisting through the
weekend and possibly into early next week.

The pattern will change by Tuesday next week as the upper low
finally gets shunted to the east with riding finally moving back
into the region. This will mean dry weather possibly returning
for Tuesday and Wednesday next week as rain chances remain below
30%.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A trough and an associated cold front will bring convection
through the region overnight. Have used a TEMPO group at all
ports east of ZZV to try to time the most likely time for
passage of thunderstorms. Confidence in thunder is waning as the
activity continues to slowly weaken. Ceilings are likely to
drop to high IFR/low MVFR as the trough and front cross.

Low ceilings will linger through sunrise at most terminals with
some patchy 4-6 mile mist. Rapid improvement to VFR is
anticipated behind the front. FKL and DUJ will likely not see
this improvement until the afternoon. Steep low-level lapse
rates should promote wind gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range by
midday areawide, with some modest instability creating isolated
showers as well.

.Outlook...
Periodic restrictions and scattered showers are expected
through Sunday as a slow moving upper low persists across the
Great Lakes region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...22/Shallenberger
LONG TERM...22/Shallenberger
AVIATION...22/CL