Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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925 FXUS61 KPHI 260131 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 931 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over Atlantic Canada will continue to retreat eastward as a warm front approaches this evening. Low pressure associated with this warm front will move eastward thru Thursday as it passes by to our north moving from Ontario and Quebec into New England. By the weekend, the area will be situated between high pressure to the north while low pressure will be to our south. This set up looks to continue into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... A warm front will track though the region tonight and early tomorrow. A cold front will approach us late tomorrow. As a result, just about everyone has PoPs painted for their area at some point through Thursday. The highest PoPs remain across our western zones. Our smallest PoPs reside across our southeastern zones. Much of the same weather conditions continue through tonight with prevailing dry weather and periods of light showers or drizzle at times. With some elevated instability moving into the Lehigh Valley and Poconos, we cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder, though no severe weather is expected. SPC just has the region in the General Thunderstorm category. With the blanket of clouds tonight and the warm front moving through, lows will range from the upper 50s to upper 60s across the region. Afternoon highs tomorrow will range from the upper 60s to around 80, although clouds will be plentiful Winds will mainly be out the southeast in the 5 to 10 mph range, except 10 to 15 mph along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Unsettled conditions for the late week and early weekend. The models do not seem consistent with yesterdays in keeping dry conditons over most spots. Instead, moisture from the remnants of Helene get caught around the Tenn Valley upper low and gets moves north. Another northern stream system/front settles across New England and the northern Middle Atlantic area Thu night/Friday. Both of these systems offer the possibility for showers across the area thru the period. Temperatures both Fri/Sat look a little above normal with highs in the mid/upper 70s for the southern areas and low 70s north. Readings a bit milder Sat with some low 80s across Delaware. Lows mostly in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Not the easiest of forecasts for the long term. The models seem all over the road with what to do with the remnants of Helene once it moves into the Tenn Valley later this weekend. The CMC keeps moisture in tact and sends it up across our area for a rainy end to the weekend. The 00Z GFS/EC less so, but still good for plenty of clouds and scattered showers too. The latest GFS looks wetter for Sunday. It seems that the blended solutions offering 20/25 POPs may be too light for the southern areas so I have bumped them up with more chance pops for Delmarva and south NJ for Sun/Sun night. It`s probable that higher pops are possible in future fcsts. The feature inches offshore Monday/Monday night so pops are basically slight chance for then. Plenty of uncertainty in the long term. Temperatures will not stray much from normal Sun and early next week with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s most spots and some mid 70s possible for highs Mon/Tue for metro Philadelphia. Lows mostly in the 50s with low 60s close to the shore. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...Between scattered showers, stratus, and fog, MVFR (this evening) and then IFR (overnight) conditions can be expected. Best chance of showers will be at KABE/KRDG. High confidence in restrictions occurring, low confidence in extent of restrictions. SE winds 5-10 kts. Thursday...Conditions will be slowly transitioning through the day. Most of the morning will feature IFR conditions. MVFR in the afternoon. A brief period of VFR is possible laster in the day. SE to S winds 5 to 10 mph. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Thu night thru Monday... Low confidence fcst with VFR much of the time, but scattered showers possible with lower VSBYs and CIGs at times. Lower conditions more likely across south NJ and Delmarva. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all the ocean waters through tonight, and then for tomorrow, for our waters south of Cape May. Primarily for 5 ft seas. SE to S winds will generally average 10 to 20 kts. Sub-SCA conditions for Delaware Bay. Mainly SE winds around 10 to 15 kts. Outlook... Thu night thru Sunday... Low confidence fcst with VFR much of the time, but scattered showers possible with lower VSBYs and CIGs at times. Lower conditions more likely across south NJ and Delmarva. Rip Currents... For Thursday...South-southeast winds around 10-15 mph. Breaking wave heights of 3-4 feet with an 11-12 second period. For this reason, have opted to upgrade to a HIGH risk of the development of dangerous rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. For Friday...East-southeast winds around 5-10 mph. Breaking wave heights of 2-3 feet with a 10-11 second period. Due to lighter winds and lower wave heights, have opted to go with a MODERATE risk of rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers and the speed of the currents are generally maximized at low tides. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tides and water levels continue to decrease as onshore flow weakens and we move away from the full moon. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through Thursday evening`s high tide for Ocean County, NJ and Sussex County, DE as the back bays remain in minor flood stage, even during low tide. Although onshore flow has weakened, the east-southeast wind direction will continue to keep water trapped in the back bays. Some spotty minor flooding remains possible along the Eastern Shore of Maryland with tonight`s high tide, but tidal flooding should subside thereafter. Otherwise, no upcoming tidal issues are expected on the Delaware Bay, tidal Delaware River, nor the New Jersey coast outside of Ocean County. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for NJZ020-026. High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for NJZ014- 024>026. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for DEZ003-004. High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for DEZ004. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>453. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ454-455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AKL/Fitzsimmons NEAR TERM...Kruzdlo/Staarmann SHORT TERM...OHara LONG TERM...OHara AVIATION...Kruzdlo/OHara/Staarmann MARINE...DeSilva/Kruzdlo/OHara TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DeSilva