212
FXUS61 KPHI 251943
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
343 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over Atlantic Canada will continue to retreat
eastward as a warm front approaches this evening. Low pressure
associated with this warm front will move eastward thru Thursday
as it passes by to our north moving from Ontario and Quebec into
New England. By the weekend, the area will be situated between
high pressure to the north while low pressure will be to our
south. This set up looks to continue into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A warm front will track though the region tonight and early
tomorrow. A cold front will approach us late tomorrow.

As a result, just about everyone has PoPs painted for their area.
The highest PoPs remain across our western zones. Our smallest PoPs
reside across our southeastern zones. With some elevated instability
moving into the Lehigh Valley and Poconos, we cannot rule out a few
rumbles of thunder, though no severe weather is expected. SPC just
has the region in the General Thunderstorm category.

With the blanket of clouds tonight and the warm front moving
through, lows will range from the upper 50s to upper 60s across the
region. Afternoon highs tomorrow will range from the upper 60s to
around 80, although clouds will be plentiful

Winds will mainly be out the southeast in the 5 to 10 mph range,
except 10 to 15 mph along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled conditions for the late week and early weekend. The models
do not seem consistent with yesterdays in keeping dry conditons over
most spots. Instead, moisture from the remnants of Helene get caught
around the Tenn Valley upper low and gets moves north. Another northern
stream system/front settles across New England and the northern Middle
Atlantic area Thu night/Friday. Both of these systems offer the possibility
for showers across the area thru the period. Temperatures both Fri/Sat
look a little above normal with highs in the mid/upper 70s for the
southern areas and low 70s north. Readings a bit milder Sat with
some low 80s across Delaware. Lows mostly in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Not the easiest of forecasts for the long term. The models seem all
over the road with what to do with the remnants of Helene once it
moves into the Tenn Valley later this weekend. The CMC keeps
moisture in tact and sends it up across our area for a rainy end to
the weekend. The 00Z GFS/EC less so, but still good for plenty of
clouds and scattered showers too. The latest GFS looks wetter for
Sunday. It seems that the blended solutions offering 20/25 POPs may
be too light for the southern areas so I have bumped them up with
more chance pops for Delmarva and south NJ for Sun/Sun night. It`s
probable that higher pops are possible in future fcsts. The feature
inches offshore Monday/Monday night so pops are basically slight
chance for then. Plenty of uncertainty in the long term.

Temperatures will not stray much from normal Sun and early next week
with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s most spots and some mid 70s
possible for highs Mon/Tue for metro Philadelphia. Lows mostly in
the 50s with low 60s close to the shore.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Between scattered showers, stratus, and fog, MVFR (this
evening) and then IFR (overnight) conditions can be expected. Best
chance of showers will be at KABE/KRDG. High confidence in
restrictions occurring, low confidence in extent of restrictions. SE
winds 5-10 kts.

Thursday...Conditions will be slowly transitioning through the day.
Most of the morning will feature IFR conditions. MVFR in the
afternoon. A brief period of VFR is possible laster in the day. SE
to S winds 5 to 10 mph. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Thu night thru Monday... Low confidence fcst with VFR much of
the time, but scattered showers possible with lower VSBYs and
CIGs at times. Lower conditions more likely across south NJ and
Delmarva.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all the ocean waters through
tonight, and then for tomorrow, for our waters south of Cape May.
Primarily for 5 ft seas. SE to S winds will generally average 10
to 20 kts.

Sub-SCA conditions for Delaware Bay. Mainly SE winds around 10
to 15 kts.

Outlook...

Thu night thru Sunday... Low confidence fcst with VFR much of the
time, but scattered showers possible with lower VSBYs and CIGs at
times. Lower conditions more likely across south NJ and
Delmarva.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides and water levels continue to decrease as onshore flow
weakens and we move away from the full moon.

A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through Thursday
evening`s high tide for Ocean County, NJ and Sussex County, DE
as the back bays remain in minor flood stage, even during low
tide. Although onshore flow has weakened, the east-southeast
wind direction will continue to keep water trapped in the back
bays.

Some spotty minor flooding remains possible along the Eastern
Shore of Maryland with tonight`s high tide, but tidal flooding
should subside thereafter.

For the Delaware Bay, tidal Delaware River, and the New Jersey
coast outside of Ocean County, no further tidal issues are
expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for NJZ020-026.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for DEZ003-004.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>453.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ454-455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AKL/Fitzsimmons
NEAR TERM...Kruzdlo
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...Kruzdlo/OHara
MARINE...DeSilva/Kruzdlo/OHara
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO PHI