493
FXUS61 KPHI 252223
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
623 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over Atlantic Canada will continue to retreat
eastward as a warm front approaches this evening. Low pressure
associated with this warm front will move eastward thru Thursday
as it passes by to our north moving from Ontario and Quebec
into New England. By the weekend, the area will be situated
between high pressure to the north while low pressure will be to
our south. This set up looks to continue into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A warm front will track though the region tonight and early
tomorrow. A cold front will approach us late tomorrow.

As a result, just about everyone has PoPs painted for their
area. The highest PoPs remain across our western zones. Our
smallest PoPs reside across our southeastern zones. Much of the
same weather conditions continue through tonight with
prevailing dry weather and periods of light showers or drizzle
at times. With some elevated instability moving into the Lehigh
Valley and Poconos, we cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder,
though no severe weather is expected. SPC just has the region
in the General Thunderstorm category.

With the blanket of clouds tonight and the warm front moving
through, lows will range from the upper 50s to upper 60s across
the region. Afternoon highs tomorrow will range from the upper
60s to around 80, although clouds will be plentiful

Winds will mainly be out the southeast in the 5 to 10 mph
range, except 10 to 15 mph along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled conditions for the late week and early weekend. The
models do not seem consistent with yesterdays in keeping dry
conditons over most spots. Instead, moisture from the remnants
of Helene get caught around the Tenn Valley upper low and gets
moves north. Another northern stream system/front settles across
New England and the northern Middle Atlantic area Thu
night/Friday. Both of these systems offer the possibility for
showers across the area thru the period. Temperatures both
Fri/Sat look a little above normal with highs in the mid/upper
70s for the southern areas and low 70s north. Readings a bit
milder Sat with some low 80s across Delaware. Lows mostly in the
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Not the easiest of forecasts for the long term. The models seem
all over the road with what to do with the remnants of Helene
once it moves into the Tenn Valley later this weekend. The CMC
keeps moisture in tact and sends it up across our area for a
rainy end to the weekend. The 00Z GFS/EC less so, but still good
for plenty of clouds and scattered showers too. The latest GFS
looks wetter for Sunday. It seems that the blended solutions
offering 20/25 POPs may be too light for the southern areas so I
have bumped them up with more chance pops for Delmarva and
south NJ for Sun/Sun night. It`s probable that higher pops are
possible in future fcsts. The feature inches offshore
Monday/Monday night so pops are basically slight chance for
then. Plenty of uncertainty in the long term.

Temperatures will not stray much from normal Sun and early next
week with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s most spots and some
mid 70s possible for highs Mon/Tue for metro Philadelphia. Lows
mostly in the 50s with low 60s close to the shore.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Between scattered showers, stratus, and fog, MVFR
(this evening) and then IFR (overnight) conditions can be
expected. Best chance of showers will be at KABE/KRDG. High
confidence in restrictions occurring, low confidence in extent
of restrictions. SE winds 5-10 kts.

Thursday...Conditions will be slowly transitioning through the
day. Most of the morning will feature IFR conditions. MVFR in
the afternoon. A brief period of VFR is possible laster in the
day. SE to S winds 5 to 10 mph. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Thu night thru Monday... Low confidence fcst with VFR much of
the time, but scattered showers possible with lower VSBYs and
CIGs at times. Lower conditions more likely across south NJ and
Delmarva.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all the ocean
waters through tonight, and then for tomorrow, for our waters
south of Cape May. Primarily for 5 ft seas. SE to S winds will
generally average 10 to 20 kts.

Sub-SCA conditions for Delaware Bay. Mainly SE winds around 10
to 15 kts.

Outlook...

Thu night thru Sunday... Low confidence fcst with VFR much of
the time, but scattered showers possible with lower VSBYs and
CIGs at times. Lower conditions more likely across south NJ and
Delmarva.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides and water levels continue to decrease as onshore flow
weakens and we move away from the full moon.

A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through Thursday
evening`s high tide for Ocean County, NJ and Sussex County, DE
as the back bays remain in minor flood stage, even during low
tide. Although onshore flow has weakened, the east-southeast
wind direction will continue to keep water trapped in the back
bays.

Some spotty minor flooding remains possible along the Eastern
Shore of Maryland with tonight`s high tide, but tidal flooding
should subside thereafter.

For the Delaware Bay, tidal Delaware River, and the New Jersey
coast outside of Ocean County, no further tidal issues are
expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for NJZ020-026.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for DEZ003-004.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>453.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ454-455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AKL/Fitzsimmons
NEAR TERM...Kruzdlo/Staarmann
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...Kruzdlo/OHara/Staarmann
MARINE...DeSilva/Kruzdlo/OHara
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...