010
FXUS61 KPHI 240020
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
820 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the east coast tonight, then
offshore and out to sea on Monday. High pressure will build to
the south the region through Tuesday. Another cold front is
expected to move across the east coast Wednesday night and
offshore by Thursday morning. High pressure builds across the
Mid Atlantic and northeastern states Friday, then offshore
Friday night. Another cold front is expected later Saturday into
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
We have allowed the Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory to
expire at 8 pm as temperatures continue to cool now that the sun
is going down, and clouds and showers cool the air slightly. It
will still feel muggy through the night until the cold front
comes through later tonight.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #449 remains in effect across
eastern Pennsylvania and the New Jersey counties in our CWA.
Models guidance continues to show showers and thunderstorms
continuing across southern New Jersey, and either showers and
thunderstorms developing across Pennsylvania and the Delmarva,
or moving in from the west this evening and overnight. Damaging
winds, hail, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning will be
possible with any storms. Pay attention to the skies and keep a
source of weather informations handy into the evening.

The cold front will move across the area later in the overnight
hours. Showers and thunderstorms will dissiapte behind the
front, but as it slows down across southern New Jersey and
southern Delawarea/Maryland, the showers and thunderstorms
could linger into daybreak.

Lows will remain very warm with upper 60s N/W and low/mid 70s
S/E. The cooler/drier air will arrive well behind the front.
Winds turn from Southwest to West overnight.

For Monday, the front will be east of the area Monday morning.
Drier and cooler air arrives behind it. Any early morning
showers across ern Delaware or extreme SE NJ around dawn will
end by mid-morning. Clouds will decrease from NW to SE across
the area. Daytime temperatures will be quite a bit cooler for
most areas with mid/upper 70s for the Southern Poconos and
Lehigh Valley areas and low/mid 80s for metro Philadelphia and
much of NJ. A few upper 80s for Delmarva are possible. The dew
points will be much lower with a more comfortable feel to the
air. Winds will be West to Northwest and increase to 10 to 15
mph with gusts to 25 mph at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The short term forecast begins with dry weather expected for
Monday night through Tuesday night. High pressure will build out
of the Ohio River Valley Monday night, across Virginia and
North Carolina during the day Tuesday, then offshore Tuesday
night. Our area will be on the northern fringe of the high, and
even though there area a couple of short wave/vorticity impulses
expected in the northwest to west flow aloft Monday night and
Tuesday, low PW values will not be conducive to precipitation.
By Tuesday night, moisture will be increasing across the area,
but there is not expected to be any forcing mechanism to help
create showers.

As we move into Wednesday and Wednesday night, a cold front
will approach the area from the west late in the day, then move
across the Mid Atlantic region Wednesday night. Wednesday will
likely be another hot and humid day ahead of the approaching
front, similar to this past week and weekend. But thankfully it
looks like the heat should not last long. There will be
instability across the area with CAPE values 500-1000 J/kg,
along with some enhanced shear with values reaching 30-40 knots.
So there will be the potential for some stronger storms to
develop. The cold front will move through overnight, so there
may be a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight,
although the storms may not be as strong during the overnight
hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The aforementioned cold front will move offshore by Thursday
morning and out to sea during the day. There could be some
lingering showers near the coast as the front departs the area,
but most areas will be dry. High pressure will then build across
the Mid Atlantic and northeastern states Friday, then offshore
Friday night. This will bring another period of dry weather to
the area.

Yet another cold front is expected to move across the area next
weekend, although there are some timing differences with the
models. While the GFS and Canadian have the front moving through
as early as Saturday night, the ECMWF has the front moving
through during the day Sunday. So we will keep the higher chance
of precipitation for the Saturday night through Sunday night
period, although it will not likely rain the whole time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

.Tonight...Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
through the evening into the overnight hours. Sub VFR conditions
will be possible with any shower or thunderstorm; however,
Outside of any shower or thunderstorm, conditions will remain
VFR. Winds will be southwest 5-10 knots with gusts 15-20 knots,
higher in and near thunderstorms. Winds become west the
northwest overnight 5-10 knots. Lower confidence in
showers/thunderstorms, higher confidence otherwise.

.Monday...VFR conditions are expected. Winds will increase out
of the northwest to 15-20 knots, with gusts 25-30 knots. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR conditions expected. Gusty northwest winds
20-25 knots early in the evening, then northwest 5-10 knots.

Tuesday...VFR conditions expected. Gusty northwest winds around 15
knots during the day.

Tuesday night...VFR conditions expected.

Wednesday...Mostly VFR conditions expected. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon which may lead to lower conditions.
Gusty southwest winds 15-20 knots.

Wednesday night...Periods of sub-VFR conditions possible with
showers and thunderstorms likely.

Thursday...VFR conditions expected. Gusty northwest winds 15-20
knots.

Thursday night...VFR conditions expected

Friday...VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
The SCA flag will continue tonight and into Monday for the ocean
waters. The lower Delaware Bay was added too with more gusts and
choppy seas expected to develop this afternoon/evening associated
with showers/tstms. Once the front passes overnight, surface winds
will switch around to W/NW and continue to be gusty into Monday.
Showers/tstms expected to develop later this afternoon and continue
into the early overnight. Fair weather for Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night-Tuesday night...Conditions expected to remain below
advisory levels.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...Conditions may reach Small Craft
Advisory levels.

Thursday-Friday...Conditions expected to remain below advisory
levels.

Rip Currents...

Monday...West-northwest winds around 10-15 mph with gusts up to
20 mph and breaking waves around 2 to 3 feet. Although wind
direction will be directed offshore, wave periods are expected
to increase to around 7 to 8 seconds. For this reason, have
maintained a MODERATE Risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents for both NJ/DE beaches.

Tuesday...Northwest winds will back to southerly as the day
goes on around 10 mph. Breaking waves around 1 to 2 feet. With
winds mainly directed offshore or parallel to the coast and
much lower wave heights, have opted to go with a LOW Risk of rip
currents for all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for today.

Location          Record High (6/23)

Philadelphia, PA      97/1888
Allentown, PA         95/1965
Reading, PA           96/1908
Mount Pocono, PA      90/1908
Trenton, NJ           97/1894
AC Airport, NJ        98/1988
AC Marina, NJ         91/1909
Wilmington, DE        100/1894
Georgetown, DE        100/1988

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for
ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Robertson
NEAR TERM...OHara
SHORT TERM...Robertson
LONG TERM...Robertson
AVIATION...OHara/Robertson
MARINE...DeSilva/OHara/Robertson
CLIMATE...