Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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824 FXUS61 KPHI 240522 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 122 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes remains across the Northeast and northern Middle-Atlantic region during the start of the new week. By midweek, it will lift to the north and east and off into the Atlantic. Low pressure approaches from the west and drags a cold front towards the region by the middle of the week. This system clears the region by the end of the week. High pressure builds down from the north of the weekend and start of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Forecast on track with the early morning update. Just made some minor tweaks adding mentionable PoPs for areas south of Philadelphia as some light returns are showing up on radar. Showers should dissipate and/or move offshore by daybreak. Lows tonight are forecast to be mainly in the mid 50s to near 60 in the I-95 corridor (near 50 at higher elevations). The story for Tuesday will be similar but with lower chances for showers as high pressure centered to the northeast nudges back in. Skies will be largely overcast to start the day but may become more scattered in the afternoon before filling back in ahead of the next system. High temperatures look to again be right around 70 degrees except in the southern Poconos where low to mid 60s are expected. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Plenty of subtle changes in the upper air pattern with weak synoptic systems bring a degree of uncertainty in the short term. The pattern is becoming more amplified with a ridge off the East coast building up into New England while a trough well to the west starts to close off while capturing the tropical system approaching the Gulf Coast. As these shifts take place, a weak surface low moves to the NW of our area bringing a chance for showers Wed/Wed night. Our forecast will have high chance/low likely pops for the wrn areas early Wed which will spread east during the afternoon/overnight. Pops return below slight chance for Thu. The areas N/W if I-95 will receive the great totals (perhaps 1/4 to 1/2 inch) while S/E areas will be more 1/10th to 1/4 inch (on average). Still, considering the lack of rain lately, it will be welcome to most areas. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Looking towards the end of the week and into the weekend, the upper air pattern looks to become more blocky across the Middle Atlantic and Northeast. The previous upper low well to the NE gets reinforced and remain across the northern Atlantic Ocean while a second cut-off low develops over the the Midwest region. This Midwest low captures what will be left of the tropical system and deepens as well. In between, an upper ridge tries to build over our area with a surface high to the north. The models are mildly dissimilar with regards to how/when this happens. Overall the pops offered by the guidance is low (mostly slight chance) and favors Delmarva and south NJ. The 12Z GFS has a dry solution for the region with a stronger ridge while the CMC brings moisture to the western areas Fri night/Sat. For now, we`ll go along with the NBM guidance for the long term. Temperatures will generally be above normal with highs in the mid/upper 70s for the S/E areas and upper 60s/low 70s N/W. Lows will favor the 50s N/W and 60s S/E. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas... Rest of Tonight (thru 12z)...Most sites start VFR but some stratus begins to move in around/just before daybreak, reducing ceilings down to MVFR. Some terminals could stay VFR through the night before coming down later this morning. High confidence in prevailing VFR/MVFR, with low to moderate confidence in timing of restrictions. Winds out of the east/northeast around 5 kt. Tuesday... MVFR to start with stratus, but ceilings should lift/scatter out a bit for the afternoon at most sites. Not exactly high confidence though, and changes could come with the 12z TAF package keeping MVFR ceilings through the day as an easterly onshore wind could reinforce stratus. Model guidance is having trouble handling this setup overall. Winds out of the east around 10 kt. High confidence in wind speed/direction, low confidence in extent of restrictions and timing of improvement to VFR. Tuesday Night...Scattered showers move in with ceilings coming down gradually, first to MVFR by the mid-evening, potentially down to IFR early on Wednesday morning. Winds out of the east around 5-10 kt. Low confidence. Outlook... Tue night thru Wed night...Scattered showers could bring lower CIGs/VSBYS at times. Mostly for KRDG/KABE. Patchy overnight fog possible too. Thu thru Sat... Mostly VFR. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisories on the Atlantic coastal waters today and tonight, primarily due to elevated seas. On the Delaware Bay, winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria. Outlook... We`ve extended the SCA into Wed for now, but it looks like perhaps the end of the long-running SCA may follow for Wed night. The sub-SCA may last thru Fri night with a possibility of another SCA Sat or Sunday. Scattered showers Tue night thru Wed night. Rip Currents... There is a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches through Wednesday. The persistent onshore flow continues with easterly winds of 10 to 20 mph along with 3 to 5 ft breaking waves. Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers and the speed of the currents are generally maximized at low tides. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A prolonged period of onshore flow has resulted in, and will continue to result in, a piling up of water along the coasts with this water unable to drain within tidal waterways. Some Coastal Flood Advisories have been dropped as of this afternoon, while some Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect through the Tuesday afternoon and evening high tide cycles. Details as follows. Dropped Coastal Flood Advisories for the southern Raritan Bay, northern portions of the Atlantic coast of New Jersey, and southern portions of the Atlantic coast for New Jersey. These counties include Middlesex, Monmouth, southeast Burlington, Atlantic, coastal Atlantic, Cape May, and Atlantic Coastal Cape May. Some spotty minor coastal flooding could occur during the Tuesday morning/afternoon high tide cycle, but flooding of advisory minor status is not anticipated. For Ocean county, coastal Ocean county, Sussex county (DE) and the Delaware Beaches, the Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect until 6 pm Tuesday to include the high tide cycle on Tuesday. This is mainly for the back bays of Barnegat Bay as well as the Little Assawoman Bay and the Indian River Inlet as water continues to be slow to drain. For Delaware Bay, the Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect until 6 pm Tuesday to include the high tide cycle Tuesday for minor coastal flooding. For the tidal Delaware River, Coastal Flood Advisories were allowed to expire at 10 PM, with no further headlines expected. For the northeastern shore of Maryland, Coastal Flood Advisories are now in effect through Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning high tide cycles for minor coastal flooding. A Coastal Flood Advisory may be also needed for the Wednesday night high tide cycle. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ020- 021-026. High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for NJZ014- 024>026. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for DEZ002>004. High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for DEZ004. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ012. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ015-019- 020. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS NEAR TERM...AKL/Hoeflich/MJL SHORT TERM...OHara LONG TERM...OHara AVIATION...AKL/Hoeflich/MJL/OHara MARINE...AKL/OHara TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hoeflich/Wunderlin