Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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730 FXUS61 KPHI 240541 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 141 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the east coast tonight, then offshore and out to sea on Monday. High pressure will build to the south the region through Tuesday. Another cold front is expected to move across the east coast Wednesday night and offshore by Thursday morning. High pressure builds across the Mid Atlantic and northeastern states Friday, then offshore Friday night. Another cold front is expected later Saturday into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 130 AM...Latest radar shows much fewer storms across the region than earlier in the night. Expecting this lull to continue for a few hours before a possible uptick in some showers and storms come daybreak. The main cold front is still pushing east from central PA this morning and some of the latest guidance has it moving through right around sunrise this morning. As a result, while showers and thunderstorms are expected to dissipate after the front pushes through, we could see one more round of showers and storms, mainly across the Delmarva and extreme southern NJ early this morning before the drier air filters in later in the day. Lows will remain very warm with upper 60s N/W and low/mid 70s S/E. The cooler/drier air will arrive well behind the front. Winds turn from Southwest to West overnight. For Monday, the front will be east of the area Monday morning. Drier and cooler air arrives behind it. Any early morning showers across ern Delaware or extreme SE NJ around dawn will end by mid-morning. Clouds will decrease from NW to SE across the area. Daytime temperatures will be quite a bit cooler for most areas with mid/upper 70s for the Southern Poconos and Lehigh Valley areas and low/mid 80s for metro Philadelphia and much of NJ. A few upper 80s for Delmarva are possible. The dew points will be much lower with a more comfortable feel to the air. Winds will be West to Northwest and increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph at times. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The short term forecast begins with dry weather expected for Monday night through Tuesday night. High pressure will build out of the Ohio River Valley Monday night, across Virginia and North Carolina during the day Tuesday, then offshore Tuesday night. Our area will be on the northern fringe of the high, and even though there area a couple of short wave/vorticity impulses expected in the northwest to west flow aloft Monday night and Tuesday, low PW values will not be conducive to precipitation. By Tuesday night, moisture will be increasing across the area, but there is not expected to be any forcing mechanism to help create showers. As we move into Wednesday and Wednesday night, a cold front will approach the area from the west late in the day, then move across the Mid Atlantic region Wednesday night. Wednesday will likely be another hot and humid day ahead of the approaching front, similar to this past week and weekend. But thankfully it looks like the heat should not last long. There will be instability across the area with CAPE values 500-1000 J/kg, along with some enhanced shear with values reaching 30-40 knots. So there will be the potential for some stronger storms to develop. The cold front will move through overnight, so there may be a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight, although the storms may not be as strong during the overnight hours. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The aforementioned cold front will move offshore by Thursday morning and out to sea during the day. There could be some lingering showers near the coast as the front departs the area, but most areas will be dry. High pressure will then build across the Mid Atlantic and northeastern states Friday, then offshore Friday night. This will bring another period of dry weather to the area. Yet another cold front is expected to move across the area next weekend, although there are some timing differences with the models. While the GFS and Canadian have the front moving through as early as Saturday night, the ECMWF has the front moving through during the day Sunday. So we will keep the higher chance of precipitation for the Saturday night through Sunday night period, although it will not likely rain the whole time. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of tonight (through 12Z)...A few isolated to scattered showers will linger around through the rest of the overnight hours. One final round of showers and storms are possible towards daybreak, mainly for MIV/ACY. Sub VFR conditions will be possible with any shower or thunderstorm. Outside of any shower or thunderstorm, however, conditions will remain VFR. Winds will be southwest 5-10 knots with gusts 15-20 knots, higher in and near thunderstorms. Winds become west the northwest overnight 5-10 knots. Lower confidence in showers/thunderstorms, higher confidence otherwise. .Monday...VFR conditions are expected. Winds will increase out of the northwest to 15-20 knots, with gusts 25-30 knots. High confidence. Outlook... Monday night...VFR conditions expected. Gusty northwest winds 20-25 knots early in the evening, then northwest 5-10 knots. Tuesday...VFR conditions expected. Gusty northwest winds around 15 knots during the day. Tuesday night...VFR conditions expected. Wednesday...Mostly VFR conditions expected. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon which may lead to lower conditions. Gusty southwest winds 15-20 knots. Wednesday night...Periods of sub-VFR conditions possible with showers and thunderstorms likely. Thursday...VFR conditions expected. Gusty northwest winds 15-20 knots. Thursday night...VFR conditions expected Friday...VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... The SCA flag will continue tonight and into Monday for the ocean waters. We added the upper Delaware Bay as winds have been gusting 25+ knots for a few hours and will likely continue into the night. Stronger gusts and choppy seas expected to develop this evening associated with showers/tstms. Once the front passes overnight, surface winds will switch around to W/NW and continue to be gusty into Monday. Fair weather for Monday. Outlook... Monday night-Tuesday night...Conditions expected to remain below advisory levels. Wednesday-Wednesday night...Conditions may reach Small Craft Advisory levels. Thursday-Friday...Conditions expected to remain below advisory levels. Rip Currents... Monday...West-northwest winds around 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph and breaking waves around 2 to 3 feet. Although wind direction will be directed offshore, wave periods are expected to increase to around 7 to 8 seconds. For this reason, have maintained a MODERATE Risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for both NJ/DE beaches. Tuesday...Northwest winds will back to southerly as the day goes on around 10 mph. Breaking waves around 1 to 2 feet. With winds mainly directed offshore or parallel to the coast and much lower wave heights, have opted to go with a LOW Risk of rip currents for all beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures for today. Location Record High (6/23) Philadelphia, PA 97/1888 Allentown, PA 95/1965 Reading, PA 96/1908 Mount Pocono, PA 90/1908 Trenton, NJ 97/1894 AC Airport, NJ 98/1988 AC Marina, NJ 91/1909 Wilmington, DE 100/1894 Georgetown, DE 100/1988 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430- 431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Robertson NEAR TERM...MJL/OHara SHORT TERM...Robertson LONG TERM...Robertson AVIATION...MJL/OHara/Robertson MARINE...DeSilva/OHara/Robertson CLIMATE...