937
FXUS65 KPIH 162010
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
210 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
It`s been a pleasant, albeit cooler than normal, Sunday across
eastern Idaho. Afternoon satellite imagery shows ample sunshine, for
now, but this will change later this evening and into the day
Monday. An U/L trough will continue to push south and east over the
next 36 hours and should be centered across the Idaho panhandle by
tomorrow afternoon. With this, we`ll see clouds, wind, precip and
even colder temperatures for the day on Monday and into Tuesday.
Showers spread into the central mountains around/just after midnight
tonight, then showers and thunderstorms spread across mainly the
northern half of East Idaho through the day Monday. Best chances for
precip will be across the northern half of the area and this is
certainly supported by hi-res CAMs. As we get into the lower Snake
Plain, Magic Valley and down into the Bear Lake region, PoPs start
to drop off quite a bit but we could still see an isolated shower,
just about anywhere. Snow, yes snow, will be a concern across the
higher terrain of the central mountains, generally above 7000 ft.
but could see some light snowfall sneak into the Stanley and Island
Park as well. Higher peaks could see some 2-6 inches of snow through
Tuesday morning.

Winds will pick up throughout the morning on Monday and a Wind
Advisory has been issued across the Arco Desert and into the Snake
Plain where winds in the 25-35 mph are expected for much of the day.
Into the Magic Valley and towards Shoshone, it was a bit too
marginal for an advisory but it`ll still be breezy (20-25 mph). A
cold front will push through the area during the day tomorrow and
will bring some unusually cold air into the for Tuesday AM. Since it
is almost summer and given the high confidence of occurrence and
potential agricultural impacts, went ahead and issued a Frost
Advisory for Tuesday morning. More rural spots could even drop below
freezing so a Freeze Warning isn`t out of the question if model
guidance comes in colder over the next 24 hours. McKaughan

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday
Showers and thunderstorms will persist Tuesday on the back side
of the departing low. Temperatures will remain on the "cool" side,
although still 5-10 degrees warmer than Monday. The rest of next
week will remain unsettled. There will be multiple weak storms
moving across the state, helping to trigger showers and
thunderstorms across portions of central and eastern Idaho. It
will certainly be warmer later in the week, with a very quick
return to 80s and 90s for the valleys. Keyes


&&

.AVIATION...
We will remain dry until tomorrow as a rather strong and
cold area of low pressure swings across the state. Wind-wise, we
will see 15-25kt sustained winds at all TAF sites except SUN...with
gusts of 25-35kts expected. Winds of 15-25kts, including gusts, are
possible at SUN. We will also see showers and thunderstorms
developing through the day. We will see showers across the central
mountains not too long before sunrise. We will need to watch for a
more solid band developing along the front, with another round
forming as the low itself swings across our area. For now, we will
VCSH and/or VCTS in the TAFs.  Keyes

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cool and breezy conditions expected today ahead of another cold
front that will arrive later today. Light precipitation will move
in tonight with snow levels dropping to about 6500 feet. Accumulating
snow is likely along ridgetops. Temperatures will decrease through
Monday when the wind ramps up yet again. Wind gusts to 40 mph possible
Monday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The flood warning has been dropped for the Snake River as Heise as
flooding is no longer expected as river levels continue to drop.
Extended the warning for the Teton River at Driggs for another 24
hours but water levels are forecast to drop later tonight and the
warning can likely be dropped tomorrow if the forecast comes to
fruition. McKaughan

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for IDZ051>055.

Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for IDZ052>054.

&&

$$