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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
449 FXUS65 KPIH 221957 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 157 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night. Hot! Temperatures today hover around 90, but surge Sunday into the mid 90s for many areas under a strong upper ridge. Daytime highs would put much of the Snake Plain on Sunday under the threat of a Heat Advisory, but overnight lows drop off significantly, and generally stay at or below the 65 degree threshold for temperature recovery. Thus we`ll hold off on that headline for now. The other impact in the short term will be winds Sunday afternoon. Current forecast max winds develop across the Arco Desert just at or slightly above lower thresholds for a Wind Advisory, but the window is short, only about 4 hours. Elsewhere, winds are expected to only reach about 15-20 mph, certainly breezy but below even Lake Wind Advisory thresholds for American Falls Reservoir. Therefore we`ll hold off on this headline for now, as well. DMH .LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday. Dry conditions and warmer than average temperatures will persist well into next week as high pressure pushes daytime highs 10 to 15 degrees above climatological norms. Widespread highs will reach into the low to mid-90s across the Snake Plain and eastern Magic Valley, as well as low elevations further south, with 60s and 70s in the mountains and 80s in mountain valleys. Elevated upper-level flow will support breezy surface conditions over the Snake Plain daily each afternoon throughout the week, where sustained winds will reach or exceed 20 mph and gusts will range 30 to 40 mph. An upper low will move onshore into the PacNW on Thursday with limited moisture predominately remaining further north in the ID panhandle, although chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will exist. The National Blend does include low-end PoPs up to around 30% generally south and east of the Snake Plain. Significantly dry conditions will be tough to overcome and models show dry air rebounding quickly on Saturday. The good news is that this system will bring temperatures back down into the upper 70s and 80s for much of our low elevations or within several degrees of normal. Cropp && .AVIATION... VFR conditions forecast for the weekend timeframe with mostly clear skies and dry conditions under high pressure. Winds will be variable at times and range light to breezy to around 15 kts, increasing on Sunday to around 15 to 25 kts. Cropp && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures will persist through the first half of next week with daytime highs running 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Minimum humidity will range 10 to 20 percent through mid-week. Furthermore, elevated upper-level flow will support breezy surface conditions over the Snake Plain daily each afternoon throughout the week, with sustained winds reaching or exceeding 20 mph and gusts ranging 30 to 40 mph. A system will bring a brief reprieve Thursday through Friday along with slight chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms, dropping temperatures back to within a few degrees of normal and helping to increase min RH a bit. Cropp && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$