508
FXUS65 KPIH 191950
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
150 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thu night. Upper level troughing to
the west and upper level ridging over the Great Plains has lead to
a dry upper level air flow. The upper level pattern changes
little, with the coastal moisture moving into the continent in
Canada, and not the CA coast which would have pushed some moisture
into southern Idaho. So, expect a dry pattern that will allow a
tremendous warm-up. From this afternoon to Thu afternoon,
temperatures are up 10 degrees F, plus or minus a couple of
degrees. Thus the mountains are looking at highs in the 60s and
70s, and Snake River plain/eastern Magic Valley highs in the
middle 70s to middle 80s.

Wind will be driven by slope-valley winds and remain light, except
in the Snake River plain where wind is expected to stay
northeasterly all day, weakening a little in the afternoon. At
this time, wind over the American Falls Reservoir Thu morning and
even into the afternoon is northeast and as strong as 9 knots.
Thus, very close to Lake Wind Advisory, but right now still under.
Messick

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday.
Expecting minimal impacts in the long term period other than very
hot conditions over the weekend.   A weak short wave in western flow
aloft will create isolated eastern mountain thunderstorms on Friday
afternoon.  It will be very warm with highs in the upper 80s in the
Snake Plain and Magic Valley Friday and 70s to low 80s in the
mountains.  By Saturday and Sunday low elevation highs will reach
into the 90s with Sunday being the hottest day of the year to this
point with some localities maybe reaching close to 100.  Monday
through Wednesday will be slightly cooler but still hot with highs
in low elevations still in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  The next
chance for any shower or thunderstorm activity after Friday will be
next Wednesday on the blended forecast but not overly confident.  So
the main theme will be an extended period of hot and dry weather
through the middle of next week with the hottest conditions over the
weekend.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The trend will be for hot and dry conditions Thursday through next
Wednesday.   Only decent chance for any showers or thunderstorms
will be Friday afternoon mainly in zones 411 and 413.  Daily minimum
humidity will be in the 10 to 20 percent range with less than great
overnight recoveries.  Winds expected to be generally light through
Saturday with breezy to windy conditions expected much later Sunday
into next week.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect mainly clear skies through tonight and only high clouds on
Thursday.   So good VFR flying conditions.  Winds may reach 10 knots
out of the east-northeast at BYI and 5 to 10 knots north to
northeast Thursday at IDA and PIH.
GK

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Teton River at Driggs fell a much faster rate than
previously expected, and was already down a foot from minor flood
stage. Coordination with Teton County OES led to the cancelation
of the Flood Advisory, which clears the board of hydrologic
issues. Messick

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$