385
FXUS65 KPIH 281943
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
143 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Afternoon satellite imagery shows an upper low centered across
northeastern MT today while closer to home, we have some fast moving
cirrus clouds streaking across the region. That`s really the only
thing of significance today as things remain tranquil across the
region. High pressure continues to build over the area and
temperatures are running slightly below average today. Things will
remain pleasant overnight with another evening in the 40s and 50s
across the region. The heat returns with avengeance tomorrow as the
upper ridge really amplifies overnight and into the day Saturday.
Expecting daytime highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the
lower valleys tomorrow. Skies again will be mostly clear with no
precipitation expected. Overnight lows into Sunday AM will be much
milder with the warmer airmass, generally in the 50s and 60s outside
of mountain locations. McKaughan

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday.
Our transient ridge of high pressure will be moving out of the
area on Sunday as a Pacific trough begins to make its way onshore
and towards us. We will remain in southwest flow aloft on Sunday,
but increasing cloud cover will help "cool" us by a few degrees
with highs expected to be in the mid to upper 80s for most, though
lingering in the low 90s where a bit more sunshine is expected in
parts of the Southern Hills and southeastern Highlands. As this
system arrives, there will be the potential for a few showers and
thunderstorms Sunday into Monday, though PoPs on Sunday will be
around 20 to 30 percent in parts of the Central Mountains, Snake
Plain, and Eastern Highlands. The better potential for showers and
storms on Monday will shift a bit northward, with a 20 to 30
percent chance in the Upper Snake Plain, Eastern Highlands, and
Central Mountains. However, a 50 to 70 percent chance will exist
up in Clark and Fremont counties. Wind gusts will also increase
again Sunday and Monday with gusts around 30 to 40 mph throughout
the eastern Magic Valley and Snake Plain on both Sunday and
Monday. Outside of these areas, gusts will be a bit lighter, but
still around 20 to 30 mph. Once this trough is out of here, we
will gradually warm up through the 80s through the rest of the
week with generally breezy conditions each afternoon with gusts of
25 to 35 mph. We will be keeping an eye on the following weekend
as models show a dome of high pressure building over the West
Coast with deterministic ECMWF and GFS models bringing in triple
digit highs by Sunday while their ensemble counterparts remain in
the 90s. AMM


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the period with mostly clear
skies and no precipitation expected. Winds will remain a touch
breezy this afternoon but generally in the 15-20 kt range at the
highest. Once the sun goes down, winds will slowly taper off and
should be light overnight and into the day Saturday. Winds
generally 10 knots or less throughout the day tomorrow with
prolonged VFR conditions likely to continue. McKaughan

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
We remain in northwest flow aloft today before a transient ridge
of high pressure moves through eastern Idaho on Saturday.
Overall, this lends itself to relatively quiet, but still hot and
dry weather. Highs will jump from near 80 today to the upper 80s
to mid 90s by Saturday afternoon. Across the area, min RHs will
range from mid teens to mid 20s today and tomorrow. There will be
some minor improvements to min RHs on Sunday and Monday as our
next system swings through the area. In this case, min RHs will
increase into the 20s to low 30s for most on Sunday, but remain in
the teens for parts of the southeastern Highlands and Arco
Desert/Mud Lake area. The upper teens to mid 20s continue for most
on Monday with higher min RHs closer to 30 to 40 percent up in
the Island Park area where there will be a 40 to 60 percent chance
for showers and storms. Winds will increase with this system,
too, with gusts around 30 to 40 mph throughout the eastern Magic
Valley and Snake Plain on both Sunday and Monday. Outside of these
areas, gusts will be a bit lighter, but still around 20 to 30
mph. After this weekend system, it will be warm and breezy through
the week ahead. AMM

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$