Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
571 FXUS65 KPIH 242022 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 222 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night. Upper ridge continues with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. A few afternoon build-ups present on satellite imagery along the Montana border/Divide region, but moisture is limited and any developing convection should remain north of the border. Returning SW flow aloft allows for temperatures to rebound slightly Tuesday, rising a few degrees above today. Winds remain breezy during the afternoon under the influence of strong daytime mixing. Approaching upper Pacific trough swings shortwave northeast through Nevada late Tuesday into Tuesday night. There is some potential for isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon near the Utah border, but overall confidence is still low at this time. Better chances occur during the evening/overnight shifting north from the Oakley/Burley/Raft River region north across the central mountains after midnight, though chances remain low/isolated at this time. DMH .LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday. Mostly dry conditions and warmer than average temperatures will persist into next week as high pressure pushes daytime temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above climatological norms. Courtesy of an approaching trough and departing ridge, upper-level flow will lift moisture north over the ridge on Wednesday, with chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms both Wednesday and Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center has included much of the CWA (excluding the eastern Magic Valley) in a general risk of thunder, while National Blend PoPs have only increased slightly into the 20 to 40 percent range for much of SE Idaho. Increased cloud cover will help to keep daytime temperatures on Wednesday slightly lower than the previous day`s, with widespread highs reaching into upper 80s to low 90s across the Snake Plain and eastern Magic Valley, as well as low elevations further south, with 60s and 70s in the mountains and low 80s in mountain valleys. Elevated upper-level flow will support breezy surface conditions over the Snake Plain, increasing further on Thursday as a cold front passes, bringing advisory-level winds of 30 to 50 mph. Daytime highs will return to within several degrees of normal for Thursday and Friday, but these relatively cooler temperatures will be short-lived. Models show high pressure rebounding on Saturday, with the NBM featuring a ten degree increase in high temperatures between Friday and Saturday ahead of an approaching trough early next week. Cropp && .AVIATION...VFR conditions forecast with mostly clear skies and dry conditions under high pressure. Elevated winds will be the main impact, with SW sustained winds 15 to 25 kts and gusts 20 to 35 kts this afternoon. Clouds will begin filtering into SE Idaho Tuesday night as an upper trough approaches. Cropp && .FIRE WEATHER...Seasonably hot temperatures and mostly dry conditions will persist through tomorrow with daytime highs continuing to run 10 to 15 degrees above normal and extensive minimum humidities running 20 percent and lower. Winds will become breezy to windy each afternoon over the Snake Plain, with sustained winds reaching or exceeding 20 mph and gusts ranging 30 to 50 mph. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will arrive Wednesday and Thursday as the next system approaches. A brief reprieve will arrive Thursday through Friday, with temperatures dropping back to within a few degrees of normal. However, temperatures will trend warmer again for the weekend with high pressure returning on Saturday. Cropp && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$