Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
746 FXUS65 KPIH 170944 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 344 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... The low pressure system responsible for our recent rounds of showers and strong thunderstorms will track directly over southeast Idaho today, resulting in widespread on-and-off shower activity with embedded thunderstorms regionwide...our wettest day of the week. Patchy fog is also possible. Additional QPF amounts through tonight are forecast to range from 0.20 inches in Challis and the ern Magic Valley, to another 0.50 to 0.75 inches in many of our mountain ranges...especially east of I-15 from the Island Park region all the way down to the Bear River Range. Precip will tend to trend down tonight with the most persistent showers refocusing north and east of Idaho Falls for Wednesday as the low moves into MT. Elsewhere, showers will be more isolated with longer dry periods Wednesday. High temps today and Wednesday will hold in the upper 50s to mid- 60s...an early taste of Fall! 01 .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY... East Idaho remains in a split with weak trough to the north and closed low over the central California coast. In general, deterministic models and clusters open the closed low and shift it east into/past the four-corners region by Saturday. There are some differences in the clusters as to how much ridging may be possible over East Idaho through this time and into early next week, and NBM retains generally weak PoPs over higher elevation regions. Given the low confidence in the pattern, blend remains the bet for now. Overall temperatures remain well below normal. DMH && .AVIATION... Showers will continue across East Idaho through tonight, with a few thunderstorms possible once again this afternoon and evening. VFR CIGS are expected to trend downward to MVFR through the day. Given the amount of rainfall/moisture present through the day, there is a concern for potential fog overnight in areas where partial clearing can be realized, especially for KDIJ. DMH && .FIRE WEATHER... Rainfall continues today and tonight, with a few thunderstorms possible again this afternoon and evening. Most areas will receive at least a wetting rain through tonight, but the highest rainfall totals are expected across the Salmon-Challis, northern Sawtooth, and Caribou-Targhee NF areas. In these areas, there is a greater than 75% chance of more than 0.50" of rain by sunrise Wednesday. East Idaho will be split between two systems Wednesday, with a few showers still possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the northern regions, and dry conditions to the south. Conditions remain weakly unsettled into the weekend with low confidence chances of a shower across higher elevations. Temperatures are expected to remain well below normal through the weekend. DMH && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$