460
FXZS60 NSTU 140113
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
213 PM SST Thu Jun 13 2024

.Short term...

The showers from a trough over Manu`a and to the east of American
Samoa has slowly disinigrated late this morning and early
afternoon. Even though this moisture is still expected to move
over the rest of the territory, including Tutuila and Aunu`u, late
this afternoon and evening, the risk of rainfall has been reduced
to scattered (40% chance) and heavy rainfall is unlikely.

By tomorrow morning, a dry than average lower to mid levels of the
atmosphere will make it difficult for showers to develop and a mix
of sun and clouds are likely throughout the day. The chance of a
passing shower increases slightly for tomorrow afternoon, but is
not expected to create flash flooding if showers move through.

For Friday evening through Saturday night, another trough is
expected to move through the region but will likely weaken for
Saturday and Saturday night. Numerous showers for Friday night
are forecast to reduce to scattered showers for Saturday with the
easterly breeze increasing to 20 mph with higher gusts in
showers.

.Long term...

From the second half of the upcoming weekend through next week,
below average rainfall is forecast for all islands of American
Samoa. Confidence is high that a ridge to the southeast will bring
in drier than average air at the lower to mid levels of the
atmosphere through at least midweek. Easterly trades are forecast
to maintain around 20 mph from early to midweek with above
average temperatures. However, the easterly breeze should provide
relief to the warmer than average temperatures.

&&

.Marine...

A recent POES satellite pass over shows seas have eased to around
6 to 7 feet. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory has expired for
the American Samoa coastal waters as seas are below 8 feet and
winds below 20 knots. The trough just to the east of Aunu`u has
dissipated more than expected, so sea conditions are not
anticipated to reach Small Craft Advisory status overnight. By
Friday afternoon, the moderate to fresh easterly breeze will
remain with only an isolated shower forecast in the morning but
the risk increases slightly in the afternoon. A trough is
expected to move through Friday night and Saturday to increase
winds up to 20 knots. Wind driven seas are forecast to build to
reach up to 9 feet due to the fresh easterly breeze along with the
long fetch of the winds. Even though the trough will move east by
Sunday morning, the fresh easterly breeze will remain through the
middle of next week.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE

&&

$$

LaPlante