479
FXZS60 NSTU 130109
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
209 PM SST Wed Jun 12 2024

.Short term...

As of early this afternoon, satellite imagery shows the showers
and thunderstorms that were over American Samoa this morning has
shifted to the east. However, the latest balloon data still shows
the potential for thunderstorms as instability remains very
strong over the region. For tonight, numerous showers remain in
the forecast with a risk of thunderstorms and will continue
through Thursday night. Easterly winds remain around 10 to 15
mph, but stronger gusts are expected near thunderstorms.

Finally, drier air is expected to move over the territory on
Friday to give plenty of sunshine, above average temperatures and
only a slight chance of a passing shower. Another trough is
forecast to move over the region on Friday night and to remain
through Saturday night. However, this trough will be weaker
compared to the trough over American Samoa last night and early
this morning. Flash Flooding is not likely during this time.
Easterly trades increase to around 20 mph.

.Long term...

There is high confidence of a weather pattern change from Sunday
through the middle of next week. The positioning of a high
pressure system to the southeast will bring in much drier air than
normal and below average instability over the American Samoa
islands. For the month of June, so far, WSO Pago Pago has received
9.34 inches of rain. The normal amount of rainfall for the entire
month of June is 6.37 inches. Therefore, the drier air that is
forecast for the second half of the weekend and next week will be
ideal for the territory. Even though above average temperatures
are forecast, the easterly trades near 20 mph will provide at
least some relief to the hot and humid weather.

&&

.Marine...

Sea conditions continue to slowly ease as southerly swell and the
easterly trades decrease. However, seas remain around 8 feet as of
early this afternoon and period timing is still high enough to
create surf within the High Surf Advisory conditions through the
rest of the day. We will monitor conditions through this evening
as conditions may continue to ease to reach below the High Surf
Advisory levels.

Even though the trades have decreased today, a moderate easterly
breeze remains. This will keep seas within close range of the
lower end of the Small Craft Advisory criteria through Thursday
night. (A Small Craft Advisory is issued when a wave forecast
reaches up to 8 feet or more AND/OR winds up to 20 knots or more.)
However, easterly trades will increase Friday evening through
early next week to the Small Craft Advisory levels in both sea
heights and wind speeds.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

A High Surf Advisory remains in effect.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

&&

$$

LaPlante