Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
626 FNUS55 KPSR 171035 FWFPSR Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southwest and South-Central Arizona and Southeast California National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 335 AM MST Mon Jun 17 2024 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING DUE TO STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND HIGH FIRE DANGER... .DISCUSSION... Elevated to locally critical fire weather is expected across the region today. A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for the higher terrain northeast of Phoenix this afternoon and evening where gusts as high as 30-35 mph and relative humidity levels as low as 7-12% are anticipated. Fuel moisture across south central AZ is also very dry with ERCs now above the 90th percentile, or near the climatological maximum for this time of year. Cooler temperatures and lighter wind speeds will reduce the fire weather risk on Tuesday and Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to increase late this week. ...Thunderstorms imply gusty winds... Note...Additional Fire Weather Forecast information can be found in the Area Forecast Discussion. See product PHXAFDPSR. AZZ132-172245- West Central Deserts/Northwest Maricopa County/Greater Phoenix Area/Southwest Deserts/Southwest Maricopa County/ Northwest and North-Central Pinal County- Phoenix BLM/YUM BLM/CAZ-CRZ- 335 AM MST Mon Jun 17 2024 .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................98-105. * 24 hr trend..................5 degrees cooler. * Min Humidity....................9-13 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 10 to 20 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Phoenix.......9100 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Phoenix......Southwest 19 knots. * Dispersion for Phoenix..........Excellent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. * Min Temperature.................68-78. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................28-42 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .TUESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................96-102. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................10-14 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming southwest in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Phoenix.......9300 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Phoenix......Southwest 10 knots. * Dispersion for Phoenix..........Very good. .EXTENDED... .WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows 68-78. Highs 98-105. South winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .THURSDAY...Clear. Lows 70-83. Highs 103-110. South winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 74-84. Highs 107-114. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 77-87. Highs 106-112. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 78-88. Highs 105-110. $$ AZZ131-CAZ231-172245- Yuma/Martinez Lake and Vicinity/Lower Colorado River Valley AZ- Lower Colorado River Valley CA- 335 AM MST Mon Jun 17 2024 /335 AM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................101-106. * 24 hr trend..................4 degrees cooler. * Min Humidity....................8-12 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Yuma..........7500 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Yuma.........Southwest 13 knots. * Dispersion for Yuma.............Very good. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. * Min Temperature.................70-75. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................30-44 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 10 to 20 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............West 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .TUESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................98-103. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees cooler. * Min Humidity....................7-11 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Yuma..........8300 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Yuma.........Southwest 6 knots. * Dispersion for Yuma.............Fair. .EXTENDED... .WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows 68-74. Highs 100-105. South winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .THURSDAY...Clear. Lows 71-78. Highs 104-109. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .FRIDAY...Clear. Lows 73-81. Highs 108-113. South winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .SATURDAY...Clear. Lows 77-83. Highs 108-113. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 79-84. Highs 108-113. $$ AZZ133-172245- Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest Foothills- Southern Tonto NF/West San Carlos BIA/South Portion Ft Apache BIA/ CAZ- 335 AM MST Mon Jun 17 2024 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING... .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................88-102. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees cooler. * Min Humidity....................8-12 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 10 to 20 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 20 to 30 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. * Min Temperature.................58-70. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees cooler. * Max Humidity....................28-40 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 10 to 20 mph in the evening becoming south 5 to 10 mph after midnight. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 20 to 30 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .TUESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................85-99. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees cooler. * Min Humidity....................10-15 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming southwest 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .EXTENDED... .WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows 60-75. Highs 89-102. South winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 64-80. Highs 91-108. Southeast winds 15 to 25 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly clear with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 68-82. Highs 91-108. Southeast winds 15 to 25 mph. .SATURDAY...Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 68-82. Highs 91-107. .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 68-82. Highs 92-106. $$ CAZ232-172245- Imperial County And Eastern Riverside County- 335 AM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................96-106. * 24 hr trend..................4 degrees cooler. * Min Humidity....................8-15 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 10 to 20 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............West 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. Patchy blowing dust in the evening. * Min Temperature.................70-76. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................19-44 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 10 to 20 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............West 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .TUESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................94-102. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................6-11 pct. * 24 hr trend..................4 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............West 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .EXTENDED... .WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows 69-78. Highs 95-105. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .THURSDAY...Clear. Lows 72-80. Highs 98-108. West winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .FRIDAY...Clear. Lows 74-82. Highs 103-112. West winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .SATURDAY...Clear. Lows 77-85. Highs 104-113. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 78-87. Highs 104-113. $$ CAZ230-172245- Joshua Tree National Park- 335 AM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................84-101. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees cooler. * Min Humidity....................9-17 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 10 to 20 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............West 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. * Min Temperature.................58-73. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................21-33 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Northwest 10 to 20 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Light and variable in the evening becoming south 5 to 15 mph after midnight. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .TUESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................84-96. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees cooler. * Min Humidity....................5-9 pct. * 24 hr trend..................5 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..North 10 to 20 mph in the morning becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............West 5 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .EXTENDED... .WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows 61-74. Highs 84-99. West winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .THURSDAY...Clear. Lows 62-75. Highs 87-102. West winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .FRIDAY...Clear. Lows 65-79. Highs 91-106. West winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .SATURDAY...Clear. Lows 69-81. Highs 93-107. .SUNDAY...Clear. Lows 70-83. Highs 94-108. $$ .8 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK...Monday June 24th through Wednesday June 26th: Above normal temperatures and near median precipitation.