Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
414 FNUS55 KPSR 200819 FWFPSR Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southwest and South-Central Arizona and Southeast California National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 119 AM MST Thu Jun 20 2024 .DISCUSSION... A big pattern change will begin today with strong southeasterly moist flow into Arizona. Southeast winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts upwards of 45 mph will be possible across southern Gila Co. with this moisture surge mid morning through mid afternoon and then again late evening and tonight. While western districts will remain dry with afternoon humidity levels in a 10-15% range following poor to fair overnight recovery of 20-40%, eastern districts will improve such that afternoon values do not fall below 25% with good overnight recovery. Scattered storms are likely over mountain areas this afternoon and evening with isolated storms and gusty erratic winds into the south-central AZ lower deserts. Thunderstorm chances continue for Friday afternoon and evening, still favoring high terrain locations, but with slightly higher chances over the lower desert (20-40%) as moisture continues to spread over the region. ...Thunderstorms imply gusty winds... Note...Additional Fire Weather Forecast information can be found in the Area Forecast Discussion. See product PHXAFDPSR. AZZ132-202030- West Central Deserts/Northwest Maricopa County/Greater Phoenix Area/Southwest Deserts/Southwest Maricopa County/ Northwest and North-Central Pinal County- Phoenix BLM/YUM BLM/CAZ-CRZ- 119 AM MST Thu Jun 20 2024 .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................105-112. * 24 hr trend..................7 degrees warmer. * Min Humidity....................8-13 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Northeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming southwest 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 20 to 30 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Phoenix.......11600 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Phoenix......South 11 knots. * Dispersion for Phoenix..........Excellent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. * Min Temperature.................76-86. * 24 hr trend..................7 degrees warmer. * Max Humidity....................24-45 pct. * 24 hr trend..................7 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph in the evening becoming east after midnight. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .FRIDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny in the morning becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................107-113. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................9-21 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southeast 10 to 20 mph in the morning becoming south in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 20 to 30 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent in the morning becoming 20 percent in the afternoon. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Phoenix.......13700 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Phoenix......South 12 knots. * Dispersion for Phoenix..........Excellent. .EXTENDED... .SATURDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 81-91. Highs 102-108. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 81-91. Highs 102-108. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly clear with slight chance of showers. Lows 81-91. Highs 105-111. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 82-92. Highs 108-113. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 81-91. Highs 108-113. $$ AZZ131-CAZ231-202030- Yuma/Martinez Lake and Vicinity/Lower Colorado River Valley AZ- Lower Colorado River Valley CA- 119 AM MST Thu Jun 20 2024 /119 AM PDT Thu Jun 20 2024/ .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................105-110. * 24 hr trend..................5 degrees warmer. * Min Humidity....................8-12 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming southwest in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Yuma..........8500 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Yuma.........Southwest 7 knots. * Dispersion for Yuma.............Good. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. * Min Temperature.................74-79. * 24 hr trend..................4 degrees warmer. * Max Humidity....................26-37 pct. * 24 hr trend..................6 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 10 mph in the evening becoming northwest after midnight. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .FRIDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................110-115. * 24 hr trend..................4 degrees warmer. * Min Humidity....................8-12 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Northeast 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming south in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Yuma..........8400 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Yuma.........South 11 knots. * Dispersion for Yuma.............Very good. .EXTENDED... .SATURDAY...Mostly clear with slight chance of showers. Lows 80-87. Highs 105-110. South winds 10 to 20 mph. .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers. Lows 82-87. Highs 105-110. South winds 10 to 20 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 83-88. Highs 108-113. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 83-88. Highs 110-115. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 82-88. Highs 111-116. $$ AZZ133-202030- Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest Foothills- Southern Tonto NF/West San Carlos BIA/South Portion Ft Apache BIA/ CAZ- 119 AM MST Thu Jun 20 2024 .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................91-109. * 24 hr trend..................5 degrees warmer. * Min Humidity....................16-27 pct. * 24 hr trend..................10 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southeast 15 to 25 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 25 to 35 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent in the morning becoming 30 percent in the afternoon. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................20 percent. * LAL.............................1 in the morning becoming 3 in the afternoon. * Haines High Level Index.........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Partly cloudy in the evening becoming clear after midnight. Patchy blowing dust in the evening. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening. * Min Temperature.................67-81. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees warmer. * Max Humidity....................51-70 pct. * 24 hr trend..................16 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..East 15 to 25 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 20 to 30 mph. * Chance of Precip................30 percent in the evening becoming 0 percent after midnight. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................2 in the evening becoming 1 after midnight. .FRIDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Partly sunny. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................89-106. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees cooler. * Min Humidity....................22-34 pct. * 24 hr trend..................6 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southeast 15 to 25 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent in the morning becoming 40 percent in the afternoon. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1 in the morning becoming 2 in the afternoon. * Haines High Level Index.........3 very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .EXTENDED... .SATURDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 68-82. Highs 89-104. East winds 10 to 20 mph. .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 67-82. Highs 90-103. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 67-84. Highs 91-106. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly clear with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 69-85. Highs 95-108. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 71-85. Highs 95-110. $$ CAZ232-202030- Imperial County And Eastern Riverside County- 119 AM PDT Thu Jun 20 2024 .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................99-109. * 24 hr trend..................4 degrees warmer. * Min Humidity....................8-13 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming southwest in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. * Min Temperature.................75-81. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees warmer. * Max Humidity....................21-37 pct. * 24 hr trend..................4 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .FRIDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................104-113. * 24 hr trend..................4 degrees warmer. * Min Humidity....................8-12 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..North 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming south in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .EXTENDED... .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 79-89. Highs 101-111. South winds 10 to 20 mph. .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers. Lows 82-90. Highs 101-111. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 82-90. Highs 104-114. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 83-90. Highs 106-115. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 82-90. Highs 107-117. $$ CAZ230-202030- Joshua Tree National Park- 119 AM PDT Thu Jun 20 2024 .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................88-103. * 24 hr trend..................4 degrees warmer. * Min Humidity....................9-15 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. * Min Temperature.................65-76. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees warmer. * Max Humidity....................23-29 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph in the evening becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph after midnight. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .FRIDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................93-107. * 24 hr trend..................4 degrees warmer. * Min Humidity....................8-13 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Northeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming south 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 15 to 25 mph in the morning becoming 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .EXTENDED... .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 70-84. Highs 91-106. South winds 10 to 20 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear with chance of showers. Lows 71-85. Highs 92-106. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 72-87. Highs 94-108. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. .TUESDAY...Clear. Lows 73-87. Highs 95-110. .WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows 72-87. Highs 96-112. $$ .8 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK...Thursday June 27th through Saturday June 29th: Above normal temperatures and near median precipitation.