144
FNUS75 KPSR 220035
FWSPSR

Spot Forecast for wildcat...forest service
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
535 PM MST Fri Jun 21 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1700 MST on June 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorm activity is on the increase across the region with
increased moisture. Chances of a thunderstorm over the burn scar
through the rest of this evening is fairly low (15%). Tomorrow has
the potential to be quite active in terms of thunderstorm
activity, however there are some uncertainties and potential
limitations to storm development, especially around cloud cover.
Still, rain chances will be up to 30% in the afternoon and
evening, with storms either developing over the burn scar and or
moving in from the east or northeast on outflow boundaries. Storms
that do develop Saturday afternoon will be capable of producing
high rain rates, in excess of 1"/hr, which could lead to flash
flooding. In addition to the rain potential, the storms will be
capable of producing strong and erratic wind gusts and pose a
lightning risk. Outside of storms, ambient winds will continue
out of a south to southwest component for the next few hours, but
should shift east to southeast tonight, with some gustiness. Winds
subside after midnight and then winds will follow a similar
pattern Saturday. Temperatures will not be as high Saturday, but
still near 100F and minimum RH values will remain above critical
levels.

...Thunderstorms imply gusty winds...

Note...Additional Fire Weather Forecast information can be found
in the Area Forecast Discussion. See product PHXAFDPSR.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
CWR.................5 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 102.
Min humidity........21-26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 14 to 19 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................5 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 76.
Max humidity........67-72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South to southeast winds 5 to 14 mph. Gusts up
                    to 26 mph in the evening. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the evening.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................7 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 99.
Min humidity........28-33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 11 mph shifting to the south 5
                    to 10 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...SB
Requested by...nick castro
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416501.0/PSR
.DELDT 06/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nicholas.castro@usda.gov