Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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112 FXUS65 KPUB 110015 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 615 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms in the mtns today with isold/sctd storms over the region tomorrow afternoon. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected each afternoon Wednesday and Thursday, though mostly along the mountains. - Near to record breaking heat possible Thursday. - Rain showers and thunderstorms chances increase for Friday through Sunday, with greatest shower coverage expected Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 218 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Currently... Weak upper mid level low was noted over N NM/TX border, and was showing up quite well in the water vapor imagery. Flow over the region at mid levels was generally east to southwest, and precip echoes early this afternoon were pushing off to the south to southwest. Rest of this afternoon into tonight... Main concern is for locally heavy rain, mainly across the SW mtns, the San Luis Valley and possibly the S mtns south of US50. With plenty of low level moisture still over the region and the lift associated with the upper low to our south, some of this rain may be locally heavy, and isolated Flash Flooding may once again be an issue, especially for the Springs Burn Scar. The I-25 corridor may see a storm or two, but believe this area will see not all that much precip today. The only exception may be some activity over the Palmer Divide region and the Raton Mesa regions. The rest of the plains east of the interstate will likely remain dry. Tomorrow... Upper low pushes east and flow at mid levels transitions to weak n`westrly. Residual moisture will be over the region and isolated to scattered showers and t-storms will push southeast over the mtns and then the plains. With heights rising over the region, max temps will start to warm up and expect U80s to L90s to return to most of the plains tomorrow, with 80s over the Palmer Divide. The SLV should see highs around 80F. Flash flooding will be less of a concern tomorrow as there will be less moisture available and storms will be moving steadily to the southeast. /Hodanish && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 218 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Tuesday Night - Thursday: For around the midweek period, relatively quiet weather is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. A ridge of high pressure will build over the region, and the associated subsidence will help to keep much of the area dry during this period, with the exception being isolated light showers and weak thunderstorms over the mountains each afternoon. Along with that, isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday during the early evening hours, mostly over the mountains, as a minor short wave pushes over the area, but this precipitation is anticipated to dissipate quickly during the evening as diurnal instability wanes and the ridge starts to build. As for temperatures, the furnace returns, with hot temperatures expected area wide. Thursday is expected to bring the greatest heat, with near to record breaking daily max temperatures possible for portions of the region. Friday - Sunday: For the end of the week and through the weekend, an uptick in active weather is anticipated for the area. The ridge over the region will break down and a compact short wave will eject across the area Friday and Saturday, with southwesterly flowing prevailing Sunday. This pattern will increase rain showers and thunderstorms for the area each day, especially Friday, when the most widespread precipitation is anticipated. Along with that, a strong thunderstorm or two will be possible Friday given the support from the wave and an increase in moisture across the region. As for temperatures, a cool down is expected. Much of the region will drop back down to around and slightly above seasonal values for mid June. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 603 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Showers and thunderstorms expected early this evening, mainly across ALS where coverage and intensity of this development is higher. Expect thunderstorms to impact ALS over the first couple of hours of the forecast, with vis likely falling to around 2 miles and with winds gusting out of the north anywhere from 30 to 40 kt. Thunder should end by mid evening, but expect scattered rain showers to continue slightly longer into the evening. A scattered light shower could develop near COS this evening, but think coverage and any impacts will be low. Overall drier weather along with VFR conditions tonight into much of Tuesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms look to develop late in the afternoon with potential for this development to move near COS and ALS. Confidence is low though and have only added in a VCSH, mainly for COS where confidence is slightly higher. Do think PUB will remain dry though. Lighter winds return tonight, with generally diurnally driven winds on Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 218 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Rapid snow melt continues and increased reservoir releases continue, leading to elevated flows along the Arkansas River from Leadville to La Junta through at least tomorrow, along with smaller creeks and streams close to the mountains. While water levels are generally expected to stay within their banks, fast flows can still be dangerous. Storms this afternoon and evening will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, leading to elevated flooding concerns. Areas most likely to experience localized flash flooding will be the burn scars, low-lying urban areas, and areas that received heavy rainfall yesterday, along with areas near high- flowing streams, creeks, and rivers. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ HYDROLOGY...SIMCOE