Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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150 FXUS65 KPUB 130956 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 356 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry and very hot today. Near record to record highs expected for some locations; Heat Advisories issued for parts of the region. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly over eastern plains. Showers/storms may produce gusty outflow winds approaching 60 mph. - A few storms may become severe over the far eastern plains later this evening, especially Kiowa County. If this occurs, there could be hail up to ping pong size, as well as winds up to 70 mph. - Thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are expected on Friday afternoon and evening with the primary hazard being strong winds. A few thunderstorms may have hail and heavy rain. - Hot temperatures continue through next week && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 356 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Today... Main concern will be the temperatures today. A well-pronounced upper level ridge will be moving in over the region today and will result in very hot conditions at the surface. There are portions of the plains, especially within the lower Arkansas River Valley, which may have high temperatures exceed 105 degrees. With near record to record-breaking max temperatures expected, there are Heat Advisories in place for the counties of El Paso, Pueblo, Otero, Crowley, Bent, and Prowers. If you reside in these areas, be sure to take extra precautions to ensure that you are staying hydrated and limit strenuous outdoor activities! Along with the heat, will be the possibility of some isolated showers and/or thunderstorms developing later in the day as there will be some mid-level moisture being advected up from the south due to an upper-level low just off the coast of southern California, as well as weak instability over the region. Given that these storms will be high-based with the characteristics of inverted-v soundings also revealing very high levels of DCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg over some areas of the plains. Due to this, these may end up producing very gusty outflow winds with "virga bombs" that could cause winds to approach 60 mph at times for some locations. There could also be occasional "heat bursts" again as well, much like there was yesterday. Most of the high res guidance places a majority of the convection over El Paso County initially, and then more towards the eastern plains by later in the evening as there will be a boundary with weak low-level convergence setting up right along the very CO/KS border and extending down to the southeastern corner of Colorado. With this, there will also exist the threat of a severe thunderstorm over Kiowa County (and possibly Prowers, Bent, and Baca counties), as there will be the convergence boundary in place by later this evening, along with very high MUCAPE values just to the north of the boundary (of nearly 2000 J/kg) and much higher effective bulk shear between 35 to 40 kts). If a severe storm does occur over this area, it may produce large hail up to ping pong size, and gusty outflow winds of up to 70 mph. Tonight... Once again, a hot day will lead to a very mild night. Any remaining shower and possible thunderstorms right along the CO/KS border should continue to dissipate through the evening and move east out of the CWA by early tomorrow morning. There could still be some "heat bursts" continuing on over portions of the plains as a result. The weak boundary will likely be enhanced by outflow from convection and will move back towards the west by later in the evening, and may help to aid in the relief of cooler temperatures, along with high dewpoints as it does. Skies will eventually become mostly clear with light winds, which will also help to cool temperatures a bit more, although it will likely only drop into the low to mid 60s for a majority of the plains, and may be even closer to 70 for some areas. For high country, temperatures should fall into the 40s for most locations, with less in the way of clouds and thus better radiational cooling. -Stewey && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 356 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 A strong short wave for late spring will pass over the region on Friday providing ample amounts of forcing for thunderstorm development, though the thermodynamic variable of this equation still has a bit of uncertainty. Most of the models are resolving between 20-30 kts of 0-6km bulk shear values over the plains, so there is high certainty for lower-end amounts of shear. The more uncertain part is the amount of instability at the time of the lift would allow convection to occur. The lower resolution models are pretty consistent with >2,000 J/kg of CAPE and widespread strong to severe convection occurring. However, the higher resolution models such as the NAMNest and the HRRR both have a lack of strong convection developing and emphasizes the strong wind risk over the southeaster plains. My thinking is to agree with the high resolution guidance as they are trying to better resolve the boundary layer. So my current thoughts right now are that convection develops over the mountains around 12pm as the shortwave passes overhead, the storms will try to strengthen, but will reach relatively dry air at the surface, remain high based, and will produces wind gusts ranging from 40 to 60 mph. There will be the opportunity for a few rogue cells to create some isolated large hail up to 1" and have heavy rain, but the primary risk will be wind. Thunderstorms should mostly be in Kansas by midnight, but there may still be some lingering weak thunderstorms near the CO-KS border. After this wave passes overhead, flow will be pretty weak through the weekend and the rest of the long term forecast period (Thursday). Southwesterly flow is expected to develop aloft early next week, which creates gusty southwesterly winds at the surface. The data looks like a meteorological fire weather set-up on Wednesday, which is sort of strange for the late Spring/early Summer, especially when temperatures are expected to be in the mid- 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 356 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS, KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. Winds will be generally light (mostly less than 10 kts) and primarily influenced by diurnal effects at all terminals throughout most of the forecast period, although there will be a weak boundary moving through at KCOS and KPUB by later in the evening, around 02z and 03z, respectively. This FROPA may occur sooner, depended on acceleration due to convection over the eastern plains. There is very low confidence of VCSH/SHRA and possible VCTS/-TSRA at KALS and KPUB, but better confidence in the vicinity at KCOS. If SHRA/TSRA does occur, it could temporarily reduce CIGs and VIS to MVFR/IFR criteria. It could also result in periodic windshifts and increased wind speeds for all terminals. -Stewey && .CLIMATE... Issued at 356 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Due to a strong ridge in place, daily record high temperatures will be possible today for portions of the plains and San Luis Valley. Below are the daily record high temperatures and forecast high temperatures for the following locations: Location: Daily Record High(Year) Forecast High Alamosa 90F (2021) 88F Colorado Springs 95F (2022) 96F Pueblo 102F (2022) 102F && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086-089-093-097-098. && $$ SHORT TERM...STEWARD LONG TERM...SKELLY AVIATION...STEWARD CLIMATE...STEWARD