896
FXUS65 KPUB 162036
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
236 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Better chance of strong to severe storms tomorrow afternoon across
the plains.

- Showers with isold thunder this afternoon, some small hail and
  gusty winds possible.

- Dry and breezy Wednesday and Thursday. Some critical fire weather
conditions are expected for the eastern plains.

- Cooler and wetter conditions possible this weekend, though
  there is still some uncertainty in the models.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Currently...

A broad band of showers was noted over the southeast plains
extending from near Arlington to west of Trinidad. Over most of the
region skies were cloudy and a few ltg flashes were noted over the
interior mtns. Temps varied considerably over the region, with 90s
over the far eastern plains and mid 70s over the I-25 corridor
region. Over the mtns/valleys, temps ranged from around 40F into the
50s. winds were gusty in places from the southwest, especially over
the far eastern plains.

Rest of today into tonight...

Main concern will be broad area of light precip will moving across
the plains the rest of the afternoon. However, a bit of a more
concern will be the potential for some stronger storms over the
mtns, and possibly the far eastern plains. All of this precip is
associated with an impressive closed trough over over the greater
Lake Tahoe region and a band of moisture lifting up from New
Mexico/Arizona region.

for later tonight, showers are expected to continue over the
interior mtns and valleys, especially over the CONTDVD.

Tomorrow...

There will be a better chance of strong to severe storms over the
region during the afternoon time period. Quite a few parameters will
be coming into place, as the best forcing will be coming across
during prime heating. HREF shear will be 30 to 40 knts and CAPE
values will be in the 500 to 1000 Joules range. There will likely be
a broken band of thunderstorms moving across the plains during the
afternoon time period, and given the parameters in place, some of
the storms will be locally strong to severe.

The storms will form over the mtns during the late morning and will
move across the plains during the afternoon. The storms should clear
out by early to mid evening.

As for temps tomorrow, expect 80s along the I-25 corridor, U80 to
L90s far eastern plains, around 70 in the larger valleys and 40s to
60s mtns.

Highest mtn tops should become white with the precip that will fall
on and off during the next 24 hours.

Winds will be gusty from the south-southwest tomorrow.

One thing that should be mentioned. if the sfc winds are backed more
than fcst (.e, sfc winds southeasterly), then the severe threat will
be greater. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Wednesday-Thursday...

Dry and breezy conditions will set in across the area Weds-Thurs.
Looking at the mid and upper-level patterns, an upper low will pass
just to our north as a second low digs down over the California
coastline. With that, increasing southwest flow will move in across
Colorado both days.

The current forecast shows temperatures continuing near or above
seasonal averages, with highs in the 80s-90s over the plains and 70s
over the valleys. Meanwhile, models have been consistent on keeping
the dry airmass in place, resulting in some spotty critical fire
weather conditions each afternoon. As of now, best chance for more
widespread fire danger is over some parts of our southeast plains.


Friday Onwards...

While there is still a bit of uncertainty amongst the model
solutions heading into this weekend, a few things remain clear in
the overall pattern. The upper low from the west will move into our
area, tracking over parts of Colorado by Saturday and bringing some
moist, cooler air. Friday will serve as something of a transition
day, with winds becoming more southerly and POPs starting to
increase across the area.

High temperatures on Saturday will drop several degrees as the low
moves in, with most of the area remaining around 80s degrees in the
afternoon. The vast majority of the precipitation on Saturday will
shift north of our area, through parts of the higher terrain and the
Palmer Divide specifically could be seeing scattered showers, with
isolated POPs elsewhere.

Models show a front moving down over the plains sometime Saturday
evening/night, which will cool temperatures further and increase
precipitation chances across the area late this weekend. This part
of the forecast will largely depend on the timing, placement, and
intensity of the incoming low. The GFS and Canadian are on the
aggressive side of the models as of now, with a stronger and
faster closed low. Meanwhile, the EC is lagging several hours
behind. The timing of the low as well as the associated front
will have a notable impact on high temperatures and
precipitation, so will have to see how things develop over the
next few days. In general though, a cooler and wetter pattern is
expected this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A disturbance was moving across the region at the beginning of
this taf fcst. This system is bringing a mid level deck across
the taf sites along with some sctd showers. This activity will
last until mid to late afternoon today. An isold rumble of
thunder cannot be ruled out this afternoon.

For tonight...VFR with light winds.

By late tomorrow morning, gusty south to southwest winds will
develop over the region with another mid level deck moving
across.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...HODANISH