093
FXUS65 KPUB 192322
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
522 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong thunderstorms possible along our southern border this
  evening.

- Trending wetter over the mountains Thursday and Friday with a
  few strong afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible both
  days. Burn scar flash flooding possible.

- The heat returns across southern Colorado early next week with
  some high based thunderstorms producing gusty outflow winds
  across the mountains and Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 204 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Cloudy cool overrunning pattern continues through this evening as
southerly flow overrides the surface front to the south spreading
waves of showers and embedded thunderstorms across the
southeast plains. Depending on instability there could be a
brief period for strong to severe thunderstorms over the Raton
Mesa region, but clouds holding in tight and temperatures
struggling to warm into the lower 60s points at the greater
risk staying south of the southern CO border. This will continue
to be monitored. A weak wave across AZ will propagate across CO
within southwesterly flow aloft this evening serving as the
focus for another round of thunderstorms. This next wave may
help spread another round of showers and isolated embedded
thunderstorms into the adjacent plains tonight, especially north
of highway 50. These should dissipate as they lift
northeastward and clear to the northeast towards dawn.

Southerly flow on Thursday ahead of the western U.S. upper trough
brings increasing moisture into the mountains and Continental Divide
Thursday afternoon and night.  Although there is less of a signal
for shortwave forcing (QG Omega is weaker across southern CO), there
will be sufficient moisture in place for showers and thunderstorms
to develop over the mountains and valleys once convective
temperatures have been breached. CAPE increases especially
across the western areas and locations north of highway 50 with
up to 1000 J/kg possible by afternoon depending on how much
moisture mixes out. Deep layer shears will be 25-30 kts so a
strong to marginally severe thunderstorm or two will be possible across
the mountains, valleys and adjacent eastern slopes Thursday
afternoon. Soundings look more capped across the far eastern
plains and rising heights aloft serve to cut back the CAPE so
pops will be restricted to isolated at best.

Convection will linger into the overnight hours along the
Continental Divide as southerly flow maintains the moisture feed
across western CO. Southwesterly orographics will keep persistent
showers going across the eastern San Juans mountains. Although
storm intensities will be weaker, this will bring much needed
moisture and set the stage for higher antecedent soil moistures
for convection the following day.  -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Friday-Saturday... A broad upper trough is forecast to move from the
west CONUS across the Rockies Friday night providing modest south-
southwesterly flow through the entire layer across our region. Ahead
of the trough, the flow allows for an influx of subtropical moisture
into the forecast region, which will provide a sufficient
environment for scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning Friday
afternoon. Precipitation development will be most prominent along
the higher terrain adjacent to the upper Arkansas River Valley
Friday night into early Saturday morning. Modest CAPE and shear
suggest that some stronger storms will be possible with the primary
impacts being small hail, gusty outflow winds, and localized heavy
rainfall. Due to the subtropical moisture influx, the latest Day 3
WPC excessive rainfall outlook has the upper Arkansas River Valley
under a marginal risk for heavy rainfall, which could lead to flash
flooding, Friday into Saturday. There is medium confidence (50%) for
storm development along the higher terrain. As for Saturday, an
isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible along southern Las
Animas and Baca counties by the late afternoon. Temperatures across
the plains will warm to the upper 80s to lower 90s while the higher
terrain will experience cooler temperatures around the upper 60s to
lower 70s.


Sunday-Tuesday... Upper level ridging is forecast to build across
the southwestern CONUS bringing drier and warmer conditions to the
region. Flow aloft is expected to be west-northwesterly, limiting
our moisture content. However, some residual moisture will provide
support for some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the higher terrain and southeastern Plains. Storm development
is expected in the late afternoon to early evening each day.
Forecast soundings suggest that thunderstorms will be high based
with the primary impact being gusty outflow winds.
Temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 90s to 105 across
the plains, with 80s in the valleys and 60s/70s for the higher
terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 519 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

KALS...A few rain showers will pass across the San Luis Valley
this evening, with possible briefly reduced CIGS and VIS if they
pass over the terminal. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
to prevail overnight into Thursday. Another round of showers and
possible thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon.

KCOS and KPUB...low CIGS and reduced VIS due to light rainfall
and areas of fog will continue overnight, dissipating late
tonight into Thursday morning. Another round of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will be possible by Thursday
afternoon.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOZLEY