Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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265 FXUS65 KPUB 142348 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 548 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are expected across the eastern plains through this evening, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. - Warming trend begins Saturday, with isolated thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. .UPDATE... Issued at 546 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Thunderstorms have shifted eastward towards the border counties and have updated the watch and forecast grids to remove severe thunderstorm potential for the I-25 corridor and adjacent plains counties. Will maintain the Severe thunderstorm watch for the far eastern counties for another hour or so with an early cancellation likely as storms exit into KS. -KT && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 305 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Latest radar imagery showing showers and thunderstorms increasing across the eastern plains, as rain with isolated thunderstorms continues across the mountains and mountain valleys. This is in response to a deep upper trough rapidly approaching, and as conditions have become more unstable across southern Colorado this afternoon. Expect the coverage of the showers and storms across the mountain and mountain valleys to lower through the afternoon as the forcing shifts east, with the main focus for development expected across the plains where strong to severe storms are likely. Once again, expect the severe risk across the plains to quickly ramp up this afternoon in advance of this upper trough. While dewpoints have lowered this afternoon for areas along and west of the I-25 corridor, areas to the east have observed dew points hold steady or even rise. This was due to the early morning precip and cloud cover, with outflow reinforced by east southeast winds helping to advect upper 50s to low 60s dew points across the plains. This moisture along with steep lapse rates is yielding CAPE values up to around 3000 j/kg at this time, with the highest values along and east of a Trinidad to La Junta line. Shear hasn`t been overly high today but as this trough shifts east, will see some increases with values of 30-40kt possible across the eastern plains. While the risk for severe storms remains for the I-25 corridor, think this window will be closing over the next couple of hours as drier air filters in. During this time though, hail to around an inch and 60 mph wind gusts will be possible. East of the I-25 corridor, expect rapidly intensifying storms as they move into the higher moisture and instability. In these locations, expect hail up to 2 inches and wind gusts up to around 70 mph. This will be tied to more isolated development this afternoon, but it`s quite possible these storms grow into more clusters. Large hail will remain possible this afternoon and evening, but think the wind risk could become higher with isolated higher gusts above 70 mph not out of the question. Given the speed of the upper forcing and drying, storms should be exiting the area by mid evening. As we remain in cyclonic flow aloft, think isolated showers will remain possible. Conditions continue to dry out while warming on Saturday, with above normal temperatures returning and with coverage of showers and storms significantly lowering. Think the risk of any severe storms is low tomorrow, but can`t rule out an isolated stronger storm over the far southeast plains in the afternoon where the moisture and instability may reside. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 305 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Sunday As the upper level low moves away from our CWA overnight Saturday into Sunday, we transition to more of a southwesterly pattern. Additional moisture is expected to be advected into Colorado. With elevated areas of CAPE (>1000 J/kg) and high dewpoints in the extreme eastern portion of the CWA, isolated-scattered showers/thunderstorm development is possible. Main concern would be small hail with stronger storms that develop. Otherwise, the rest of the CWA will remain hot and dry with daytime temperatures in the high 90s to low 100s possible. Monday - Tuesday Hot temperatures with southwesterly flow will continue for the majority of the CWA. Daytime temperatures will again reach upper 90s to low 100s. Meteorological fire weather conditions will be possible over the eastern plains each afternoon, but at this time fuels are largely too green to warrant any highlights. Will continue to monitor for curing fuels. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday the southwesterly flow continues with several shortwaves entering the region. Expect precipitation to develop early Wednesday morning in the northern portion of the CWA, with slightly more active conditions for around mid-week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 523 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites as showers and thunderstorms have cleared to the east of the terminals. Skies will continue to clear this evening with light southerly winds expected to diminish and shift out of the northwest after midnight. Drier weather will return for Saturday with south to southeast winds picking up around 10-15 kts for all three terminals in the afternoon. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...KT SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...KT