170
FXUS65 KPUB 231752
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1152 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog likely, especially in the San Luis Valley (SLV)

- Seasonable temps today

- Slightly cooler than normal temperatures are expected for
  Tuesday, with above normal temperatures and mostly dry
  conditions persisting through the remainder of the forecast
  period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Currently...

A 2AM, fog/low clouds were developing in the San Luis Valley. Some
low clouds were also noted in obs/low cloud sat pix imgy over the
Monument area and vcnty KABH. Skies have cleared and radiational
cooling was ongoing, and with the moisture we have had, is allowing
for fog and low clouds to develop over parts of the region. Most
susceptible areas will be in the SLV as the low level moisture is
trapped in this region. Other areas it may be more problematic as
drainage flow may assist in decreasing the fog potential. Will
continue to monitor.

Additionally, some low clouds were noted along the CO/KS border areas
and CO/NM border regions.

Today...

After any fog does develop, it should burn off by mid morning over
the region, with it lasting maybe a bit longer over the SLV.
Otherwise today will be a very nice day over the region with
temperatures in the seasonable range. Very little in the way of
cloudiness is anticipated most areas. The only chance of an
isold shower or -tsra will be over the San Juans.

Tonight...

CLear skies and drier conditions expected, with min temps running
about 8 to 10F degrees warmer than this mornings low temps. Can`t
rule out some more fog redeveloping in the San Luis valley towards
sunrise tomorrow. In addition, a cool front will be coming down the
plains and this may keep winds up from a northerly component late
tonight, especially north of US-50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Tuesday..

Models have trended even drier with Tuesday`s post-frontal forecast.
Winds look to be light and mainly easterly throughout the day, with
enough dry air in place to prevent any impacts from upslope.
Relative humidity values look to fall down into the 20% range across
the area that afternoon, with no precipitation expected.
Temperatures are likely to be a few degrees cooler than Monday, and
near to just below normal for this time of year. This will mean
highs in the 70s across our plains and mountain valleys, with highs
in the 50s for our higher terrain locations.

Wednesday Onwards..

Our extended forecast will be characterized by above normal
temperatures and dry conditions, as a low looks to swing south and
sit somewhere over the Arkansas/Texas/eastern Oklahoma region, where
it begins to interact with a tropical system later in the period.
This setup will keep high pressure in place over Colorado, allowing
for strong subsidence and warming for the next several days. Apart
from one or two small chances at shortwave energy and potential
mountain thunderstorms, precipitation is not expected from Wednesday
onwards through the weekend. Temperatures look to climb well into
the 80s every afternoon on the plains under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions and dry weather are expected across the TAF sites
this forecast period. A few showers and even an isolated
thunderstorm are possible across the southwest mountains,
however, they will remain over the higher terrain this
afternoon. Winds will be diurnally driven this afternoon into
the evening time frame, but do expect a wind shift to the north
for COS and PUB late this evening as a trough/boundary moves
south across the plains. By early Tuesday morning, flow aloft
increases and given this trend, anticipate northerly gusts to
be in place Tuesday morning through the end of the forecast
period. Should see a diminishing trend closer to 18z, but will
let later forecasts address the duration of the strongest gusts
during the end of the forecast period or the middle part of
Tuesday.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ