Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
314 FXUS65 KPUB 161728 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1128 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - More widespread thunderstorm coverage today over the mountains and portions of the southeast plains with one or two strong to near severe thunderstorms possible. - Breezy to windy conditions on Tuesday with widespread precipitation chances over the higher terrain along with the potential for strong to severe storms. - Warm, dry and breezy Wednesday and Thursday with the potential for spotty critical fire weather conditions across the plains. - Cooler and wetter for the weekend? && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 411 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Increasing southwest flow today ahead of the southward moving CA low will pick up shortwave energy from eastern AZ and lift it northeastward across southern CO this afternoon. Already seeing showers and isolated thunderstorms in SW CO ahead of this feature early this morning, and we should see waves of showers and thunderstorms through the course of the morning across the western mountains/interior valleys. CAMS models are in fair agreement with showers and embedded thunderstorms increasing in coverage out west through the late morning and afternoon, spreading eastward into the southeast plains through this evening. Best CAPE and shear will be across western portions of the area today, and if sufficient surface heating/destabilization can occur between rounds of precipitation, a few strong to near severe storms will be possible across the Continental Divide and interior valleys. Heavy rainfall, isolated damaging winds, and hail to around 1 inch in diameter would be the primary risks. As storms move east of the mountains, low level dew points will initially start out in the 40s to low 50s before gradually moistening through the afternoon as showers come off the mountains. There probably won`t be as much downdraft CAPE as yesterday, but storms will start out high based so can`t rule out some strong gusty outflow winds with thunderstorms as they push off into the I-25 corridor and adjacent plains. Wind gusts to around 50 mph look possible. CAPE and shear do not look as great for severe thunderstorm chances out east, but some locally heavy rainfall could occur, as well as some brief small hail and gusty outflow winds. Thunderstorms push eastward but don`t really come to an end out west along the Continental Divide as the upper low lifts northeastward into NV and western UT towards 12z. Rounds of showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours, though most will be restricted to the Continental Divide. Lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be the primary risks. Temperatures through the short term will be challenging with the potential for clouds and showers to limit warming today or send cooling outflows eastward across the plains just prior to peak heating. Guidance shows quite a spread, and have leaned cooler out west, and warmer out east where there should be a period of mixing from breezy southwesterly flow to help with a quick warm up during the morning hours. Overnight lows should stay relatively warm overnight with increasing clouds and lee troughing overnight. -KT && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 411 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Tuesday-Tuesday night...Moderate to strong southwest flow across the Rockies through the day Tuesday remains progged to become more westerly and moderate Tuesday night, as a broad upper trough across the Great Basin lifts out across the Northern Rockies. Latest model data supports good moisture in place with PWATS around 150 percent of normal. This, along with increasing uvv ahead of the system through the day Tuesday, supports likely pops across the higher terrain, especially along and west of the Continental Divide, with the good orographic flow. Latest DESI indicates mean surface based CAPE of 400-900 j/kg over and near the higher terrain late Tuesday morning and afternoon, with 800-1200 j/kg across the SE plains, greatest east of the I-25 Corridor. With lee troughing and mixing, will see breezy southerly low level winds across the plains on Tuesday, leading to increasing wind shear and supporting the chance of strong to severe storm development Tuesday afternoon and early evening, especially across the plains, where large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the main threat from storms. Latest models also continue to support much drier air filtering into the region behind the passing trough, with precipitation chances quickly diminishing from west to east Tuesday evening. Temperatures on Tuesday remain at and above normal, especially across the plains, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s expected once again. Wednesday-Thursday...Moderating westerly flow across the region becomes southwest and slowly increasing through the end of the work week, as another eastern Pacific system is progged to dig across the West Coast and into the Great Basin. Models in good agreement of keeping dry air in place across the region through Thursday, and with temperatures remaining at and above seasonal norms, there could be some spotty critical fire weather conditions popping up across the plains through this time frame. Friday-Sunday...Latest model data continues to differ on the timing and location of the next system moving into the Great Basin by the end of the work week, which continues to lift out across the Rockies into the weekend. Latest models are however trending further north with the system which would keep the best chances of precipitation north of the Highway 50 Corridor and especially across northeastern Colorado. Time will tell how this pattern will evolve, however, certainly could see temperatures cooling to slightly below seasonal levels through the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1125 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A disturbance was moving across the region at the beginning of this taf fcst. This system is bringing a mid level deck across the taf sites along with some sctd showers. This activity will last until mid to late afternoon today. An isold rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out this afternoon. For tonight...VFR with light winds. By late tomorrow morning, gusty south to southwest winds will develop over the region with another mid level deck moving across. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...HODANISH