824
FXUS65 KPUB 152316
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
516 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions with isolated showers and thunderstorms are
expected on Sunday.

- Hot temperatures expected Monday with an increase in fire weather
conditions. A couple isolated thunderstorms with gusty winds
possible over Baca County Monday evening.

- A cold front is expected to pass through on Tuesday bringing
moisture and milder temperatures to the region.

- Mild temperatures expected Wednesday with a quick turn around
  with warmer temperatures from Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Relatively quiet this afternoon with latest radar imagery showing
isolated showers and thunderstorms developing across the mountains
and mountain valleys. As the mid level wave supporting this
development continues to propagate overhead this afternoon, will see
this development likely continue and even spread into portions of
the I-25 corridor, mainly across El Paso County where slightly
better focus is located. Conditions have dried out today and will
continue this afternoon, with CAPE lowering. This lacking moisture
and instability along with shear will limit any strong/severe
storms. However, given the dry conditions, gusty outflow winds will
be possible with any stronger storm. The far southeast plains
remains on the western fringe of the moisture/instability axis and
guidance continues to bounce back and forth on whether additional
isolated storms develop there. There remains a low chance for this
isolated development and if storms do develop think the risk of
severe storms will also be low.

Conditions continue to dry and warm on Sunday, with hot conditions
expected across the region. Under deep west southwest flow, will see
700mb temps soar up to around 20C on Sunday. These temps combined
with an abundance of sunshine will support well above normal temps
on Sunday. Given this setup and highest temps of 95 to around 105
degrees, have issued a Heat Advisory for the Pikes Peak region and
along the mid and lower Arkansas River Valley. Given the drier
conditions, shower and thunderstorm chances lower even further on
Sunday with only an isolated shower or storm possible across the far
southeast plains. Winds do increase on Sunday and combined with the
hot and dry conditions, will see critical fire weather conditions
develop, where fuels are critical. So, have also issued a Red Flag
Warning Sunday afternoon for the San Luis Valley and the far
southeast plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Sunday night and Monday... a longwave upper trough is forecast to
persist over the western CONUS with an embedded shortwave quickly
tracking eastward across the Pacific Northwest. Across the region,
southwest flow through the entire layer is expected to strengthen
creating downslope winds off the mountains into the Plains. This
will aid in rising temperatures across the Plains with highs
approaching 100F. Critical fire weather conditions will be present
with the hot temperatures, moderate winds, and relative humidity
values dropping into the single digits. However, the limiting factor
will be the fuels. Where fuels are critical, a Fire Weather Watch
has been issued, encompassing the afternoon and evening hours. There
will be a lack of moisture over most of the region except for our
far eastern Plains near the Kansas boarder, where an isolated
thunderstorm or two may develop over Baca County Monday evening and
quickly move eastward into Kansas. The primary impact from any storm
development will likely be strong winds. The overall confidence of
storm development is relatively low (20%).


Tuesday... The upper shortwave trough is forecast to move out of the
Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains and Canada. A cold front
is anticipated to move across the forecast region from the north
creating some milder temperatures around the upper 80s to lower 90s.
The timing of the cold front is expected during the late morning to
early afternoon. Fire weather conditions could be possible ahead of
the front due to some gusty southwesterly winds; however, the winds
will shift to northeasterly by early afternoon bringing moisture and
cooler air behind the front. This will suppress any fire weather for
the remainder of the period. The increased moisture behind the front
will create more favorable conditions for a few showers and
thunderstorms along the higher terrain and Palmer Divide due to
upslope flow by late afternoon.


Wednesday into Saturday... Models agree that the upper longwave
trough will remain in the west along with a strong upper high in the
east. Modest moisture will remain through the forecast period
bringing possible showers and thunderstorms each day and limiting
any potential for fire weather. Any storm development is forecast to
begin in the eastern mountains and move eastward across the Plains.
The chances for precipitation will gradually decrease through the
rest of the forecast period. Wednesday is expected to have cooler
temperatures with highs being in the mid 70s. Thursday begins a
rapid return of warmer temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s expected through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 516 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected over KALS, KCOS, and KPUB throughout
the forecast period. There is lingering thunderstorms around the
region, but by time the 00z TAFs go out, they should be away
from the sites. A gusty outflow boundary is possible around KPUB
through around 02z tonight. There will be no precipitation
throughout the day tomorrow, but there will be gusty southerly
winds over KCOS and KPUB and gusty southwesterly winds over
KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ224-233-
237.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for COZ224-232-233.
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Sunday for COZ077-083>086-
089-093-097-098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...SKELLY