235
FXUS62 KRAH 242010
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
410 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong mid level trough and accompanying surface front will cross
North Carolina today, then settle just to our southeast tonight.
Weak high pressure will pass over the area late tonight through
early Tuesday, then push quickly offshore late Tuesday, allowing hot
and humid conditions to return for Wednesday. Another front will
approach from the northwest early Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 PM Monday...

Water vapor imagery depicts a potent mid-level trough stretching
from northern New England down to the Mid-Atlantic. This is dragging
a weak surface cold front that is currently analyzed roughly along I-
95. Quite a sharp dew point gradient is observed along the front,
with dew points in the mid-50s to lower-60s in the Triad and lower-
to-mid-70s in the eastern Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Meanwhile
there is little change in temperatures, which are still reaching the
lower-to-mid-90s across central NC this afternoon. The lower
humidity is helping heat indices be a bit less uncomfortable than
yesterday, but some low-100s heat indices are still observed across
the far south and east. The front will slowly move SE through the
rest of central NC this afternoon and evening.

The front will be accompanied by a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of
severe thunderstorms across the central/southern Coastal Plain and
eastern Sandhills this afternoon. Impressive SBCAPE of 3000-4000
J/kg is currently observed over the far SE according to SPC
mesoanalysis. However, 0-6 km wind shear isn`t too impressive,
around 20-30 kts and highest over far northern areas closer to the
trough. Still, it could be enough to support isolated damaging wind
gusts. The main threat area left is across Cumberland, Sampson and
Wayne counties for the next few hours, as these are the last places
that the front hasn`t passed through yet. Think the main hail threat
will be closer to the coast where mid-level lapse rates are higher.
Upper forcing will be limited as we only get a glancing blow and
weak height falls from the trough that passes well to our north, so
coverage shouldn`t be too widespread. Over the rest of central NC,
drier more stable air filtering in from NW flow behind the front
will inhibit convective development.

Most places will be dried out behind the front by 00z. Slight to low
chance POPs linger for a few more hours in Sampson County, but
convective intensity should be less by that point with loss of
daytime heating. Skies will be mostly clear tonight as lows drop
into the mid-60s to near 70, much less mild compared to last night
thanks to the lower dew points, but still slightly above normal. RDU
only got down to 80F this morning which would tie an alltime daily
record high minimum temperature if it stands, but the official
forecast does currently have the temperature there dropping to 77F
before midnight tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM Monday...

Tuesday will be largely precipitation free across central NC as the
trough exits into the Atlantic and is replaced by weak ridging over
the Southeast US. Our region will also be under a much drier more
stable airmass behind the cold front. Surface high pressure over the
Appalachians in the morning will move east into the Atlantic during
the day, shifting the low-level flow to a more southerly direction.
Thus there will be very little to no change in temperatures from
today despite today`s cold frontal passage, with highs again in the
lower-to-mid-90s. Where there will be a noticeable difference is the
humidity, as dew points will mix out into the upper-50s to lower-60s
in the afternoon. So heat indices will be very similar to the air
temperatures. The one possible area of precipitation is from
Fayetteville south and east, where some CAMS (mainly the HRRR and
RAP), show enough instability for a few showers and storms to
develop along the sea breeze. But the other CAMS are much less
impressed. Given this and the unfavorable upper pattern, only carry
slight chance POPs there at this time. Lows Tuesday night will be in
the upper-60s to lower-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
As of 205 PM Monday...

...Hot Temperatures Will Continue through Next Weekend...

...Seasonable/Climo Rain Chances Return...

Heat and humidity increases Wednesday ahead of another approaching
weak cold front that will cross the area Wednesday night/early
Thursday. Wednesday looks to be the hottest day of the week, with
afternoon temps expected to top out between 95-100, and heat indices
in the upper 90s NW to 100-105 over central and eastern NC. While
some isolated pre-frontal convection is possible Wednesday
afternoon/evening, the bulk of central NC will most likely see it`s
rainfall from an ana-frontal rain band that will cross the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. There`s a very plausible chance that
the front could stall out or quickly lift back north as a warm front
on Friday, resulting in additional rain chances. Right now,
precipitation amounts looks to be light, with average rainfall
amounts expected to be between 0.10-0.25", with some localized
heavier amounts.

The heat should briefly moderate on Thursday with troughing moving
through. However, the subtropical ridge initially centered over the
southern Plains will expand eastward into the Southeast Friday and
over next weekend, bringing a renewed threat for hazardous heat with
heat indices again in the upper 90s NW to 100 to 105 across central
and eastern NC.

Another cold front, potentially the strongest of the week, is slated
to cross the area late Sunday into the day on Monday, and will bring
additional rain chances in showers and storms, and another brief
stint of cooler, less humid conditions early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 210 PM Monday...

24-hour TAF period: VFR conditions and dry weather will prevail
across roughly the NW half of central NC, including at RDU, GSO and
INT, through the next 24 hours. Across the south and east, including
at FAY and RWI, a cold front will result in scattered showers and
storms from now through early evening. Sub-VFR ceilings and
visibilities and gusty winds will be possible with any storm. The
best chance for this is around FAY. Once the front clears the far SE
by around 02z, any shower and storm chances will come to an end.
Mostly clear skies and VFR will prevail everywhere for the rest of
the period as drier air filters in. Winds will shift from the W/SW
ahead of the front to N/NW behind it, possibly gusting up to 15-20
kts at times. Winds will diminish after dark and shift to the NE and
eventually E by tomorrow morning.

Looking beyond 18z Tue: Expect mostly dry and VFR conditions through
Tue night. Isolated late day storms are possible late Wed, followed
by a better chance of afternoon/evening showers and storms Thu,
along with possible sub-VFR ceilings Thu morning. Otherwise, outside
of any storms, the risk of widespread sub-VFR conditions is low
through Sat.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 24:
KRDU: 99/2010
KFAY: 102/1914

June 25:
KRDU: 100/1952
KFAY: 102/1914

June 26:
KRDU: 102/1952
KFAY: 101/1951

June 27:
KFAY: 102/1998


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 24:
KGSO: 76/2015
KRDU: 76/1888
KFAY: 79/2010

June 25:
KFAY: 75/1952

June 26:
KGSO: 74/2010
KRDU: 76/1902
KFAY: 76/1997

June 27:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 77/1998

June 28:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 78/1914

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...Danco/Hartfield
CLIMATE...RAH