109
FXUS62 KRAH 101628
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1225 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Disturbances in unseasonably moist, southwesterly flow aloft will
interact with a surface trough over the Middle Atlantic and
Carolinas through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Thursday...

* A Flood Watch is in effect today for all of central NC through at
  least 2 AM then only the Coastal Plain until 5 AM.

* Weakly organized storms will be capable of torrential rainfall,
  which may result in scattered flash flooding, as well as strong to
  locally severe wind gusts.

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows a positively-tilted
trough axis extending from southern Quebec southwestward through
the Ohio Valley into the ArkLaTex region. Ahead of this feature,
continued moist southwesterly flow aloft will keep anomalous
deep-layer moisture in place over the Mid-Atlantic into the
Southeast. The trough axis is expected to slowly sag eastward
through this evening and reach the eastern Carolinas by Fri
morning. Regional radar imagery also show several embedded MVC`s
rotating through the mean flow over the southern Appalachians
as well as central SC and southeastern GA.

After the widespread early morning stratus gradually scatters out
through mid-morning, a continued warm and moist airmass, with
surface dew points in the low/mid 70s, should result in 1500-2500
J/kg of MLCAPE with diurnal heating. Anomalous deep-layer moisture
in place will favor relatively early convective initiation over
western NC and SC due to low convective temps and weak synoptic
ascent. This should result in scattered to numerous showers and
storms once again through the afternoon as convective outflows
spread into our area. Weak steering winds and deep-layer shear <
20kts will result in slow storm motions of efficient heavy rain
producing storms, only propagating along the development of common
cold pools and storm scale MCVs.

Flooding and severe risk: Greatest concern will once again be
scattered instances of flash flooding due to a large portion of the
Piedmont particularly sensitive to additional rainfall (the area
from the Triad to the Triangle to Fayetteville to Albemarle has
experienced 2 to over +10 inches within the past 7 days, which
is 200 to +600% of normal). 00z HREF and 18z REFS are in good
agreement that the rainfall footprint may look closer to a more
classic summer-time pattern where most places will see at least
trace amounts to 0.5-1", but concentrated areas of 2 to 5+
inches will again be possible. Both ensemble systems highlight
the greatest probabilities for concentrated higher amounts to be
bimodal, one area over the western/southern Piedmont into the
western Sandhills, and another somewhere over the Coastal Plain.
However, it is important to note that in these patterns,
locally higher and potentially significant rainfall amounts can
occur anywhere. Additionally, one or two strong to severe
convective clusters will be capable of producing strong to
severe winds, but with heavily saturated soils over a large
portion of the Piedmont, scattered downed trees will be possible
even with sub-severe wind gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Thursday...

With the upper trough shifting farther to the east, there should be
a decrease in showers and thunderstorms compared to the last few
days. Unlike recent days, the highest chance for precipitation
should be across eastern counties instead of western counties.
Considering the two rounds of heavy rain in the last week, one from
Chantal on Sunday and a second round on Wednesday, the entire
forecast area remains under a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall, even though all locations have not previously
received heavy rainfall this week. In addition, the entire forecast
area is also under a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe
thunderstorms, with damaging winds as the primary threat - this
should occur primarily during the late afternoon in the evening.
Expect seasonable temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s and lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Thursday...

The extended forecast doesn`t feature much in the way of synoptic
features, which means there won`t be much variation in the forecast
through the period. While a cold front is forecast to be along the
west side of the Appalachians on Monday and approaching central
North Carolina by Tuesday, the level of confidence this many days
out in a front making it through the region is low. Monday is the
day with the greatest coverage of 60% chances of showers/storms,
although every day in the extended forecast ranges from 40 to 60%
chances for precipitation somewhere across the forecast area. As is
typical with North Carolina summertime convection, the most likely
times for precipitation are the afternoon and evening, with minimal
coverage during the overnight and morning hours. The highs/lows will
stay similar, near 90 and 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 625 AM Thursday...

Prevailing LIFR-IFR cigs developed across the 4 northern terminals
while remaining fairly patchy around FAY. Those ceilings are
expected to then persist through mid-morning, then lift through MVFR
and scatter to VFR through late morning to midday. Scattered to
locally numerous convection is expected redevelop with daytime
heating of an unseasonably moist airmass, and under the influence of
a series of mid-level disturbances that will track across the
region, later this afternoon-evening. Timing of the PROB30s was
slightly tweaked based on the latest available guidance.

Outlook: Another day of diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms
appears likely for Friday, with coverage more scattered Saturday,
Sunday, and Monday. In addition, considering the early morning
fog/stratus that occurred this morning, early morning restrictions
could continue through the next several days with minimal change in
air mass expected.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ007>010-021>025-
038>040-073>076-083>086.
Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ011-026>028-041>043-
077-078-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Swiggett
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Swiggett/MWS