


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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271 FXUS62 KRAH 140537 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 136 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the Carolinas throughout the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 140 PM Sunday... The back-door cold front that sank into northeastern North Carolina had dissipated by this morning, with minimal convergence looking at surface observations. However, convection has blossomed earlier today than it did yesterday, with the majority of the thunderstorms to the northeast of Raleigh, along with some showers across southern counties. Coverage is expected to expand west through the day with 30-50% coverage across the area. Much of the northeastern portion of the forecast area is under a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather this afternoon, with the primary threat coming from damaging wind gusts. In addition, all locations are under a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall this afternoon. As the convection is diurnally-driven, coverage should diminish during the evening and come to an end shortly after midnight. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 140 PM Sunday... There will be minimal change in the surface pattern, although it appears that a weak trough will try to cross the region tomorrow. This should result in slightly greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms, ranging between 40-60% with the greatest focus likely along the US-1 corridor. There is a slight (level 2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall Monday, primarily to the north of US 64, with a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall elsewhere. With their afternoon update, the Storm Prediction Center has added areas north and west of Raleigh to a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather, with damaging winds the primary threat. Slightly greater cloud coverage should keep highs a degree or two cooler than today, although lows should remain similar. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 140 PM Sunday... A surface front currently extending from Quebec through Michigan and into Texas should eventually become oriented east-west north of the Mason-Dixon Line on Tuesday. The front will drop south along the Appalachians Tuesday into Wednesday, and this should increase coverage of precipitation to 60-80% for Tuesday and Wednesday. That front will then fade out, with the next front likely not slipping any farther south than Virginia. Without the influence of a front, the daily precipitation chances will drop back to 40-60%, with the greatest chances in the Triad each day as storms form along the mountains. With a minimal change in air mass, expect little change in highs and lows through the extended period, with highs/low near climatology values of 90/70. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 136 AM Monday... Isolated showers will linger through 07z or 08z from near KINT to near KRDU, otherwise a period of IFR to LIFR conditions in possible fog is expected at RDU, FAY, and RWI, with the highest confidence at RWI and FAY. VFR should prevail after sunrise, with scattered showers and storms possible between 18z and 03z today and tonight. Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure over the western Atlantic will favor a typical summertime regime of scattered PM convection and patchy late night and early morning fog/stratus through late week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett/MWS NEAR TERM...Green SHORT TERM...Green LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...Badgett