241
FXUS62 KRAH 091856
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
Issued by National Weather Service Wakefield VA
256 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Disturbances in unseasonably moist, southwesterly flow aloft will
interact with a surface trough over the Middle Atlantic and
Carolinas through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms has developed along the
northern North Carolina mountains as of early afternoon. This
cluster is expected to expand farther south and continue to move
east into the central portion of the state.

There are two primary threats, both of importance. One is the flash
flooding threat - a flood watch is in effect until 2am Thursday
across much of the western half of the forecast area, the area most
impacted by Chantal over the weekend. WPC has upgraded some northern
portions of the flood watch area to a moderate (level 3 of 4) risk
for flash flooding, a risk level that is not often seen across
central North Carolina. The rest of the area is under a slight
(level 2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall.

The second threat is severe weather. This is somewhat coincident
with the flash flooding threat spatially, highlighting western
counties more than eastern counties. However, the threat categories
are not as high - western counties are in a slight (level 2 of 5)
risk while eastern counties are in a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk.
The thunderstorm threat will be the greatest during the late
afternoon and early evening hours, with the primary threat coming
from damaging winds.

Both threats should become minimal after midnight. Overnight lows
will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

* There is a Slight Risk of both excessive rainfall and severe
  storms for much of central NC on Thu, with a Marginal Risk
  elsewhere across the area.

Bermuda high pressure will continue ridging wsw to across FL through
Thu night. A northern stream s/w tracking slowly ewd across srn
Quebec, Canada while the attendant trough moves ewd across the
Appalachians. Both the s/w and the trough should lift newd late Thu
night, while a weak s/w lingers over the Carolinas/mid-Atlantic. At
the surface, relatively low pressure will prevail across much of
central NC through Thu eve, then lift newd across the mid-Atlantic
Thu night. Still expect a warm, moist, unstable airmass over the
area, with showers and storms expected, mainly along differential
heating boundaries and leftover outflows from todays storms. The
primary weather concerns will again be heavy rainfall/flooding and
isolated damaging wind gusts. There is a Slight Risk (west) to
Marginal Risk (east) of severe storms, and a Slight Risk (northwest
2 thirds) and Marginal Risk (southeast) for excessive rainfall.
Impacts will be greatest over areas that were hardest hit by Chantal
and those who receive heavy rainfall with todays storms. As for
temperatures, highs should generally be in the mid to upper 80s,
while lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

* There is a Marginal Risk for both excessive rainfall and severe
  storms on Friday.

Aloft, the weak wave over the area on Fri should slowly drift newd
out of the area Fri night. High pressure may briefly build back in
on Sat and Sun. A northern stream s/w will swing ewd from the
northern Plains to the Northeast/southeast Canada from Sat to Mon.
While high pressure may hold across the area, the s/w trough could
clip central NC on Sun. The longwave trough may finally extend swwd
through and slip sewd into central NC early-mid next week. The
surface pattern will largely remain the same as it has been, with
relative low pressure/trough over the area. With little change in
airmass, expect continued aft/eve convection each day through the
extended forecast period, with greater coverage/intensity coincident
with s/w passages aloft and slightly less coverage/intensity when
the high aloft ridges over the area. Highs should generally be in
the upper 80s to low 90s, while lows in the upper 60s to low 70s are
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

24 hour TAF period: While all terminals will begin with VFR
conditions, an area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move
across the NC mountains and push into central North Carolina.
Confidence is highest in thunderstorms with gusty wind reaching
INT/GSO/RDU, where TEMPOs were maintained for thunderstorms with
gusty winds. The timing in the 18Z TAFs may turn out to be a little
fast for the arrival of precipitation. Further south and east, there
was enough confidence to add PROB30s to the FAY and RWI TAFs for
thunderstorms, although there was not enough confidence to add gusty
winds in the thunderstorms or prevailing precipitation. After the
threat of precipitation comes to an end, IFR stratus is expected to
develop at all stations. Added an IFR mention to RWI and FAY, and
cannot rule out the potential for LIFR ceilings developing at
INT/GSO/FAY. While FAY/RWI are likely to mix out before 18Z, it
appears that sub-VFR ceilings could persist at the other three sites
through the rest of the TAF period.

Outlook: Two more days of diurnally-driven widespread showers and
thunderstorms appear likely on Thursday and Friday, with coverage
more scattered Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. In addition,
considering the early morning fog/stratus that occurred this morning
and that is expected again Thursday morning, early morning
restrictions could continue through the next several days with no
change in air mass.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ007>010-021>025-038>040-
073>076-083>086.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...KCP
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...Green