587
FXUS62 KRAH 231809
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
210 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A hot and humid air mass will hold over the region through early
Monday. A strong mid level trough and accompanying surface cold
front will cross North Carolina late Monday and settle just to our
southeast Monday night, as weak high pressure passes over the area
through Tuesday. Hot and humid conditions will then return Wednesday
and persist into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 PM Sunday...

Isolated showers have developed across the northern Piedmont during
the past hour or so in an area of sfc convergence ahead an
approaching through that`s currently moving across the Ohio Valley.
Another area of isold showers are ongoing invof coastal areas and
eastern Coastal Plain along the seas breeze.  As the trough
continues to approach... the risk for isold showers will continue
across central NC during the rest of the near term period. The sfc
trough assoc with this system is expected to cross central NC during
the pre-dawn hours overnight, which will set the stage for the
highest PoPs at the start of tomorrow mainly along and east of I-95.
Locations that get to experience one of the these passing
showers/tstms will get some temporary relief from the heat.

Otherwise regarding the heat... will let the current heat advisory
run through its duration and expire at 8 PM.  Lows tonight in the
mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Sunday...

Mon will still be fairly hot across our SE, however we will start to
see some relief especially across the N and W. The potent shortwave
trough tracking over the western St Lawrence Valley late tonight
will continue to push E into the Northeast states Mon, resulting in
slight cooling aloft and a strengthening cyclonic mid level flow
over NC, which will take the cold front SE through much of the CWA
during the afternoon and early evening. Mid level lapse rates will
be 1-1.5 deg C higher than today, with improving upper divergence
over E NC, although strong prefrontal heating and possible deep
mixing may limit SBCAPE a bit. PW is expected to be aoa 2" over the
E (along and E of Hwy 1), so expect at least scattered to numerous
showers and storms, mostly in the SE Coastal Plain. Expect highs in
the low 90s NW and mid to isolated upper 90s SE. Pops should push to
our SE in the evening, with dry weather overnight as NW low level
flow takes over and draws in lower surface dewpoints post-front.
Lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s with clearing skies. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 340 AM Sunday...

As the upper level trough moves off the Mid-Atlantic/New England
coast ridging will once again influence dry air across the region
Tuesday and most of Wednesday. By Thursday another deep trough moves
over the area before 500mb high shifts over the SE region for the
weekend.

At the surface, temperatures will be warm throughout the long term
period. While the surface cold front continues offshore Tuesday
morning dry air will move in with tolerable dew points in the upper
50s to low 60s. Afternoon highs will be above average although highs
will be in the low 90s NW to mid/upper 90s elsewhere. Wednesday high
pressure will dominant the area with model consistency the past few
days showing temperatures in the mid/upper 90s with some areas
reaching 100 degrees. As the dew points creep into the 70s Wednesday
this will result in heat indices ranging from 100 to at least 105 in
areas along and east of US1 corridor.

The next cold front is expected to move into the region late
Wednesday and across the region Thursday. Have slight chance PoPs
beginning as early as Wednesday afternoon in the Triad before
spreading east across the region overnight. While the highest PoPs
are currently in the afternoon Thursday, models are slightly
inconsistent with timing of the front and precipitation. The GFS
shows the front moving through much faster than the Euro model. Did
a blend of the National Blend model and two long range models. With
that, have PoPs slowly exiting the region from NW to SE overnight
Thursday and have lingering chances in the far SE region as the
front is expected to get hung up along the coast Friday. Weak high
pressure will influence the region Saturday and Sunday, but have low
chance PoPs in the Triad region Sat and Sun afternoon ahead of
another approaching frontal system. For temperatures late week and
over the weekend, expect low 90s NW to upper 90s SE with unpleasant
dew points in the 70s. This could result in low end heat risk for
some across the region, thus continuation of any heat related
precautions should continue in the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 PM Sunday...

Through 18Z Monday:  Isolated showers/tstms will cross central NC
the rest of today and tonight ahead of an approaching trough. These
storms may briefly reduce cigs to MVFR along with variable wind
directions as outflows occur; otherwise, outside of this activity,
VFR conditions can be expected. SSW sfc winds around 10kt with some
higher gusts up to 18kt will persist through sunset, then look for
winds to remain aob 10kt overnight, with wind direction gradually
shifting to NW around daybreak in the wake of the passing sfc
trough.

After 18Z Monday:  Scattered showers and tstms will be possible
mainly east of I-95 Monday afternoon and evening.  Mostly dry
weather will return by Tuesday morning.  Isolated late day storms
will be possible again mainly west on Wednesday, followed by a
better chance of afternoon/evening showers/tstms late in the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 23:
KRDU: 100/1986

June 24:
KRDU: 99/2010
KFAY: 102/1914

June 25:
KRDU: 100/1952
KFAY: 102/1914

June 26:
KRDU: 102/1952
KFAY: 101/1951

June 27:
KFAY: 102/1998


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 23:
KGSO: 74/2015
KRDU: 77/1890
KFAY: 77/2017

June 24:
KGSO: 76/2015
KRDU: 76/1888
KFAY: 79/2010

June 25:
KFAY: 75/1952

June 26:
KGSO: 74/2010
KRDU: 76/1902
KFAY: 76/1997

June 27:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 77/1998

June 28:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 78/1914

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...np
CLIMATE...RAH