678
FXUS62 KRAH 220031
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
830 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the western Atlantic will extend across the
Southeast ahead of a cold front that will approach from the west and
become quasi-stationary from the Middle Atlantic to the lower MS
Valley Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 830 PM Tuesday...

The proverbial "forecast problem of the day" for the evening update
will once again be related to any fog development overnight/early
tomorrow morning. There has been a discernible eastward shift in the
ensemble probabilities for reduced visbys in fog, with the best
chance generally along and east of the I-95 corridor.

Otherwise, tranquil weather and moderating temps will be the theme
over next 36 hours. May see some thin cirrus across the western
counties as a weak upper disturbance moves through the area. Under
mostly clear skies, lows ranging from the mid/upper 50s in the
cooler locations, to lower/mid 60s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...

Surface high pressure will continue to influence much of the Mid-
Atlantic and Southeastern US Wednesday. Some patchy fog/low stratus
in the early morning hours over the Coastal plain region will clear
out by early morning and result in a mostly sunny day. Dry
conditions will continue through the day with light south-southwest
winds. Temperatures will be 6 to 7 degrees above normal with
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s, and lows in the low to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...

The general theme for the Thursday through Tuesday timeframe is for
increasingly unsettled weather as a cold front moves in. A series of
upper level disturbances in west-southwesterly flow aloft will
augment the chances for showers and storms at times. The most
predictable times for precip appear to be on Thursday with the
initial cold front and then on Friday with an upper disturbance with
which the GFS and ECMWF are fairly consistent. Beyond that the upper
level features appear to be relatively subtle until perhaps early
next week when models project a surface low moving through the Ohio
Valley and another cold moving into the region.

Rainfall through next Tuesday is forecast to total half an inch to
an inch on average, but there will certainly be some areas that
receive more in heavier showers, and thunderstorms. Slightly greater
rainfall is forecast across northern North Carolina into Virginia.

Temperatures should be slightly above normal Thursday and Friday in
the mind and upper 80s, likely trending back to normal over the
weekend with increased coverage of clouds and convection, although
confidence is somewhat low given 10 degree temperature spreads in
the some ensemble guidance owing to the uncertainty in the timing of
precip.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 730 PM Tuesday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail at
KINT, KGSO, and KRDU through the TAF period. Lower confidence for
KFAY and KRWI. Fog will be possible again tonight, mainly during the
pre-dawn hours, however there is some disagreement between model
solutions wrt the westward extent of the fog and thus how low vsbys
will go at those two terminals. For now, will keep the restrictions
in a tempo group at KFAY given the slightly lower confidence there.
At KRWI, slightly higher confidence of at least a few hours of sub-
VFR vsbys, lowest during the pre-dawn hours but possible anytime
after 06Z. A return to VFR conditions is expected with sunrise.
Winds should generally be calm to light and variable tonight,
becoming sswly at 4-7 kts during the day Wed. -KC

Looking ahead: There will be a chance of showers/storms at INT/GSO
Thursday afternoon, then diurnally driven showers/storms will be
possible at all terminals Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. -Green

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...KC/Green