Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 281609
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1209 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An elongated area of low pressure will move slowly northeast
and away from the NC coast through tonight. The low will rapidly
strengthen well off the coast on Friday, while high pressure
moves across the Southeast. A weak cold front will drop into WV
and VA late Sunday and then lift north late Monday. A stronger
cold front will approach the region on Tuesday and move across
the area on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 1200 PM Thursday...

Just a quick update to mention the Flood Watch has been
cancelled for the rest of central NC. Only some lingering light
rain is expected across eastern areas this afternoon.

As of 1100 AM Thursday...

Periods of heavy showers and storms moved across central NC
overnight, but they didn`t last long enough and it has been dry
enough lately that we avoided any significant flash flooding across
the area. Rainfall totals since yesterday have ranged from around a
half inch to an inch across the far western Piedmont to 1 to 2
inches in most other places. Isolated spots received as much as 2 to
3 inches along a stripe from Orange and Durham counties down to
Moore and Richmond counties, according to observations and radar
estimates. The only remaining flooding concerns are a few gauges on
the Tar, Neuse and Haw rivers which are in minor flood or forecast
to reach minor flood stage over the next couple of days.

An elongated area of surface low pressure and boundary are now
located just off the coast of the Carolinas this morning. Central NC
is sandwiched between this feature and another cold front that is
just starting to enter the Triad, separating dew points in the 20s
and 30s from upper-40s to lower-50s. This front will slowly push
east across central NC through this evening. With the low deepening
but moving east and away from the region, and drier air starting to
filter in (PW values down to 0.5-1" west of the Coastal Plain), the
heaviest rain has shifted to our east near the coast. Only some
light stratiform rain and drizzle remains, and this has already
completely exited the Triad, will exit the Triangle and Sandhills
between about 18z-21z this afternoon, and will exit the Coastal
Plain between about 21z-00z. No more thunder is expected as all the
MUCAPE has shifted near the coast. So at most another one to two
tenths of an inch will fall, and cancelled the Flood Watch for the
NE Piedmont and Sandhills.

As the potent mid/upper trough swings through this afternoon and
early evening, skies will clear from west to east. However, mostly
cloudy to overcast skies will likely linger for much of the day
outside of the western Piedmont. When combined with northerly winds
gusting up to 15-25 mph between the deepening low off the coast and
high pressure building in from the lower MS Valley, it will be a
chilly day. High temperatures will range from lower-50s in the far
NE (where skies won`t clear until this evening) to lower-60s in the
far west which could be mostly sunny for a good part of the
afternoon. This is anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees below normal. Some
light NW winds will last into the overnight hours, preventing ideal
radiational cooling despite clear skies, but the CAA will still help
lows drop into the mid-to-upper-30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

* Breezy conditions with gusts of 25 to 30 mph on Friday
* Drier and warmer with a good deal of sunshine

The upper trough associated with much of the rain on Wednesday and
today will be closing off near the New England coast on Friday with
a robust northwesterly flow aloft across the Carolinas. Heights at
500mb will rise 8 to 12m from Friday morning to Friday evening. A
dry airmass will be in place during the day with PW values of 0.25
to 0.5 inches or a little more than 50% of normal. Surface low
pressure well off the mid-Atlantic coast will rapidly deepen on
Friday as it approaches the Canadian Maritimes. The pressure
gradient between the low and high pressure moving east across the
northeastern Gulf Coast will result in breezy conditions with
northwest to westerly winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 35
mph. With a northwest flow aloft, some lee troughing is expected
across the western Piedmont with afternoon dew points holding in the
lower to mid 30s, further east the flow will be more westerly to
even southwesterly across the Coastal Plain allowing some dew point
recovery. RH values will drop to between 25 and 35% during the
afternoon, lowest in the Triad. We will need to monitor for possible
elevated fire weather conditions but given the precipitation over
the past couple of days, fuels may be wet enough to limit the
threat. Highs on Friday will range from mid 60s across the northern
Coastal Plain to the upper 60s in the Triangle to near 70 in the
Triad, western Piedmont and SC border counties.

As the flow aloft relaxes and flattens on Friday night, a couple of
upper air disturbances will track east across the mid-Atlantic
resulting in a minor increase in moisture and some high cloudiness.
Lows on Friday night will range in the lower to mid 40s. -Blaes

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 320 AM Thursday...

* Turning warmer this weekend with highs in the upper 70s to lower
  80s on Easter Sunday.
* Best chance of showers and possibly some storms late Tuesday into
  Wednesday.

Saturday through Sunday night: The upper air pattern will feature a
brisk westerly to west-northwesterly flow across the mid-Atlantic
and the Carolinas through the weekend with the most active flow
extending from the northern Plains into New England. Surface high
pressure centered over northern FL on Saturday morning will shift
offshore with a southwesterly low level flow extending across the
Southeast and into the Carolinas through the weekend. A developing
frontal zone across the OH Valley on Saturday will extend east and
drop into WV and VA on Sunday and into southeastern VA late Sunday
night. NWP guidance has been trending southward with the frontal
position on Sunday night. Expect dry weather and a mix of sunshine
and some clouds on Saturday with continued warming. Highs will range
in the lower to mid 70s which is about 5 to 10 degrees above
average. Lows on Saturday night will range around 50. Clouds will
increase from the north and northwest on Sunday and especially
Sunday night. There is a small risk of some spotty rain near the VA
border on Sunday night with rain chances less than 20%. Highs on
Sunday will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s which is about 10 to
15 degrees above average. Lows will range in the 50s.

Monday through Wednesday night: The pattern will become more
amplified and faster across the eastern CONUS during the first half
of the work week. A storm system moving into CA over the weekend
will move into the Four Corners region on Monday and then across the
Plains on Tuesday and into the eastern Great Lakes by late Wednesday
with the mid/upper level trough axis forecast to approach the
southern Appalachians late Tuesday and move across the mid-
Atlantic/Carolinas on Wednesday.

On Monday a weak cold front will likely be extending across southern
VA with a region of enhanced cloudiness extending into NC. The front
should lift slowly north through Monday night with the best forcing
for ascent focused near and north of the front. While most of the
precipitation associated with this system should be in VA, there`s a
small threat of some spotty rain across far northern NC. Otherwise,
expect warm conditions with a southwest breeze. Highs on Monday will
mainly range in the lower 80s although highs may be confined to the
mid and upper 70s near the VA border in proximity to the front.

As the upper trough moves east across the MS/MO Valleys on Tuesday,
a deep southwesterly flow will transport deep moisture across the
Southeast with PW values of 1.0 to 1.25 inches across central NC by
Monday night into Tuesday which is about 150 to 175% of normal.
After an initial disturbance moves across the Carolinas early
Tuesday, PW values and forcing for ascent may relax a bit before
surging up again late Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper
trough and associated cold front move across the area. There still
remains uncertainty with the timing of the front but it appears the
greatest precipitation chances are late Tuesday night into Wednesday
afternoon. Have included a slight chance of Thunderstorms for at
least parts of central NC on Tuesday and Wednesday, the threat of
stronger storms will likely depend on the timing of the convection
which could take advantage of greater instability around the time of
peak heating. Highs on Tuesday will range in the upper 70s to lower
80s with notably cooler highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s to lower
70s. -Blaes

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 715 AM Thursday...

24 hour TAF period: IFR/LIFR cigs will gradually improve to VFR from
west to east through the afternoon. VFR expected everywhere by 00Z
Fri. Vsbys should generally be VFR or MVFR, with some brief drops to
MVFR possible, mainly at KRWI and KFAY with rain. Rain/showers
impacting KRDU, KFAY, and KRWI should slowly move eastward this
morning/early aft. The rain should move out of central NC by 00Z
Fri. Northerly winds should become more nwly this aft/eve. There
will likely be periods of gusts in the 16-22 kt range through early
aft, with gusts abating around sunset and winds gradually decreasing
to around 5 kts late tonight. -KC

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail through Monday. Gusty winds
of 20-30 kts are expected from the W/NW on Fri and from the SW on
Sat. -Danco

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Danco/Blaes
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...Blaes
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...Danco/KCP


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