158
FXUS62 KRAH 081748
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
148 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will settle over the region today,
then drift offshore and weaken early Sunday. A disturbance and
approaching cold front will cross the region late Sunday and Sunday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1006 AM Saturday...

Morning satellite imagery and surface analysis reveals high pressure
across eastern TN, with dry weather across the majority of the
eastern CONUS. The front that made its way through NC on Friday is
located off the SE coast and is the focal point for some showers and
storms well offshore, but across NC conditions remain quiet.  With
relatively low dewpoints for early June, early morning
temperatures managed to make it into the mid 50s to lower 60s, but
have already rebounded close to 80 degrees in most spots as of 14Z.

For the rest of today, expect continued dry weather with temps
reaching the mid to upper 80s late this afternoon. Mid/high clouds
from a decaying complex of storms over Missouri are already starting
to make a run at the mountains and there should be a noticeable
increase in high cloud cover late this evening/overnight, but precip
chances through tonight remain at or close to zero. With cloud cover
in place, tonight`s lows will be a few degrees warmer than what we
just experienced with forecast guidance generally in the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 243 AM Saturday...

Hotter with isolated thunderstorms possible, especially over
southern NC.


It appears that central NC will remain mostly dry and hotter on
Sunday. Central NC will be in the general thunderstorm category, but
only isolated thunderstorms are expected. The best chance an
isolated thunderstorm will be in the afternoon and early evening as
an upper level disturbance and pre-frontal trough move over the
region. Highs are expected to be in the upper 80s NW and 90-95 in
the east and south. It is possible that mid level cloudiness
associated with the disturbance aloft is enough to knock
temperatures back a few degrees from this forecast. It appears that
cloudiness will linger into Sunday night as the winds become more
northerly behind the trough. Lows should fall into the 60s (lower
60s north and upper 60s south).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...

Monday through Wednesday: Aloft, as the amplifying upper trough
swings eastward through the East Coast Mon and Tue, a pair of s/w
disturbances will move through the base of the trough over central
NC. The second s/w will be more potent, however with limited
moisture to work with, chances for any showers with it are low. As
the trough moves offshore Wed, weak, transient ridging will move
through the area ahead of the next disturbance(s). At the surface, a
weak area of low pressure may trail behind the cold front and linger
over central NC on Monday, then shift eastward offshore as a
reinforcing cold front pushes through the area Mon night/Tue. The
low should sit offshore through Tue as the surface high builds
eastward from the OH Valley to the northern mid-Atlantic/Northeast
US. As the high shifts offshore Wed, it should finally push the low
away from the coast. Expect a warm front to lift toward/into the
area Wed night. Best chances for a shower or storm should be
confined to the southern and eastern portions of central NC Mon
night and Tue aft, coincident with the s/w passages aloft and
somewhat favorable diurnal timing. Otherwise, the forecast remains
dry through Wed. Temperatures should be near to slightly below
normal for Mon and Tue, increasing back to slightly above normal by
Wed.

Thursday onward: Model solutions begin to diverge for the latter
half of the week. Aloft, a disturbance over the lower MS Valley/Deep
South could deepen if/as it moves over the Gulf Thu/Fri and meets up
with a northward lifting disturbance over the eastern Gulf. There is
disagreement wrt what happens to the low(s) Fri night/Sat, either
lingering over the Gulf or lifting newd through FL to off the
Southeast US coast. Meanwhile to the north, a northern stream s/w
will track eastward through southeast Canada Wed/Thu as a secondary
low follows behind it Thu/Fri. If these lows merge over Hudson Bay,
the attendant trough could amplify southward through the mid-
Atlantic Fri/Sat. There could be some interaction between the
northern stream trough and the disturbance over the Gulf/Southeast,
but for now there is too much uncertainty to say for sure how it
will play out. Chances for showers/storms will depend on this
interaction, so will err toward climatology until there is better
agreement one way or the other. Temperatures should remain above
normal Thu through Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1226 PM Saturday...

High confidence in VFR weather at all TAF sites through mid day
Sunday. High clouds will thicken later this afternoon into tonight
but cigs will only fall to around 15kft. There will be an increasing
chance of showers on Sunday as a cold front approaches the area but
this won`t occur until after the TAF period.  Light winds generally
less than 5-7 kts through the period.

Outlook: Showers and isolated storms associated with he cold front
could bring intermittent periods of non-VFR weather Sunday night
through early Monday morning. Otherwise, much of the upcoming week
should feature VFR conditions.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Leins
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Leins