Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
133 FXUS65 KREV 201949 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1249 PM PDT Thu Jun 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Generally dry conditions across much of northern CA and western Nevada today. There is a 10-20% chance of showers and a storm or two this afternoon near the eastern Sierra south of Lake Tahoe. * Warming trend continues through the weekend with temperatures nearing 100 degrees in hotter valleys this weekend. Plan on widespread Moderate HeatRisk over the weekend. * Typical afternoon breezes make a comeback this weekend. Slightly cooler temperatures along with typical west-southwest breezes will stick around for much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... * A splitting trough swinging across the West is bringing increased mid to high level cloudiness through this afternoon and evening. HREF showing the potential for a few pop up showers across Alpine and northern Mono counties late this afternoon and evening as a bit of a deformation zone associated with the trough passes over the region. Chances are generally 20% or less for a shower or storm to develop, so don`t be surprised if a storm pops with a bit of lightning later today. Very dry near- surface air and the high based nature of any storms that develop would lean toward erratic, gusty outflow winds being the primary impact. * Drier and warmer conditions will reign the rest of the week and into the weekend with lower elevations breaching into the Moderate HeatRisk category Saturday and Sunday. Overnight temperatures will still cool off nicely, so there will at least be a break in the hotter temperatures at night. With the Moderate HeatRisk category over the weekend, be sure to take breaks and stay hydrated, avoiding strenuous activity during the peak heat. Most of the smoke and haze from CA wildfires are projected to stay aloft (away from the surface) over the weekend, but depending on fire activity we may see some periods of smoke/haze as we venture into next week. * Our standard west/southwest afternoon breezes return this weekend into next week as high pressure builds across the Four-Corners region and a trough resides off the Pacific Northwest coastline. Wouldn`t be surprised to see a bit of southerly flow transport some moisture into the region next week which would increase our chances of storms in the southern Sierra. For now, simulations are looking fairly dry with periods of enhanced west to southwest breezes each day. -Edan && .AVIATION... * VFR conditions with light winds through Friday. Low chance (10- 20%) for a shower or storm along the eastern Sierra, mainly south of Lake Tahoe later today (22-02Z). * Hot temperatures may result in some density altitude issues as afternoon temperatures approach the mid-upper 80s for Sierra terminals and 96-102 degrees at lower elevation airports. * Typical west-southwest afternoon breezes return this weekend and will persist through much of next week. -Edan && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$