354
FXUS65 KREV 220849
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
149 AM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Hot this weekend with afternoon breezes returning. Today will be
  the hottest day with western NV valleys reaching or exceeding
  100 degrees.

* There is a 10-20% chance of showers and maybe a storm or two
  south of Highway 50 Tuesday. Otherwise, the dry and breezy
  conditions will prevail through the middle of next week.

* Temperatures ease back slightly late next week, but there are
  indications things may heat back up again as we go into July.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* A hot weekend is in store as temperatures reach their peak today
  and then only slowly ease early in the upcoming week. The chance
  of seeing 100 degrees at Reno-Tahoe Intl Airport this afternoon
  is 75% with 100 degrees almost a certainty in the hottest
  valleys of western NV. Unlike the past several days, afternoon
  breezes will return this afternoon/evening and remain with us
  through the middle of next week as a mean trough sets up across
  the PacNW. Winds may enhance Sunday and again midweek as
  shortwaves brush the region, especially northwest NV.

* A dry southwest flow will keep us stable for the upcoming week
  with the exception of Tuesday-Wednesday when some mid level
  moisture may briefly sneak around the upper ridge ahead of the
  midweek shortwave trough. The GEFS/EPS indicate PWATs
  approaching 0.90" south of Hwy 50 although extensive mid level
  cloudiness may limit instability. So we could just see a bunch
  of clouds and few showers. A 10-20% chance of showers/storms was
  introduced Tuesday afternoon for now.

* Temperatures "cool" to around 5 degrees above average by Thu-Fri
  as the midweek trough passes. However, ensemble clusters are
  quick to warm us back up with 70% of the members indicating 100
  degree temperatures again across hotter western NV valleys as we
  head into July.

Hohmann

&&

.AVIATION...

* Heat building over the region may cause some density altitude
  issues this weekend. Lower valley terminals will hover near 100
  while Sierra terminals reach into the mid-upper 80s.

* Typical SW-W winds return this afternoon/evening with most gusts
  20-25 kts. These winds will more or less stay with us during the
  upcoming week with short durations of breezier conditions
  possible, especially across northwest NV Sunday and again around
  Wednesday of next week.

Hohmann

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

* A dry southwest flow and unseasonably hot weather will continue
  the fuel curing process. Overnight recoveries remain poor with
  humidity dropping well below 15%. Afternoon breezes return this
  afternoon and persist into much of next week, with most gusts
  staying just below critical levels at 25-30 mph. One place to
  watch is eastern Lassen County into northern Washoe County on
  Sunday when 1-3 hours of near critical fire weather conditions
  may be met as sustained winds approach 20 mph.

* While it is still a ways out, a trough brushing the northern
  Great Basin could enhance winds around the Wednesday timeframe,
  especially along the Sierra Front and areas north of I-80.
  Temperatures 5-10 degrees above average, low humidity levels and
  a bump in winds may push some areas to critical fire weather.

Hohmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$