894
FXUS65 KREV 040916
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
216 AM PDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A hot and generally dry week is in store for western Nevada,
northeast California and the Sierra. Max temperatures will be
10-20 degrees above average for June. Meanwhile, low chances for
showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon hours
from Wednesday through the rest of the week for the Sierra and
vicinity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The upper level system that brought some cooling and extensive
cloud cover yesterday is on its way out of the region. Therefore,
here comes a high amplitude upper level ridge that will bring the
advertised heat for the rest of the week.

Currently, nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows high
clouds slowly leaving the area. As the upper high moves in mostly
clear skies take over with only some low level clouds developing
in the afternoon generally in the vicinity of area mountains. Max
temperatures this afternoon rise to 5-10 degrees warmer than
yesterday. Therefore, highs for the valleys and lowlands will be
in the 80s, while in the mountains they will be in the 60s at the
highest elevations and 70s mid-slopes.

Wednesday through Saturday will be quite hot for June. Afternoon
temperatures are expected to be 10-20 degrees above normal as the
upper high settles across western US. Afternoon temperatures will
be in the 90s valleys and lowlands, and 70s-80s mountains.
Portions of northern Washoe north of Pyramid Lake, Pershing and
Churchill counties have a 10-20% chance of reaching 100F on
Wednesday and Saturday and 30-70% on Thursday and Friday per the
NBM. If you didn`t notice, Thursday and Friday will be the
hottest days of the week. Reno has a 10-20% chance of reaching
100F Wednesday through Saturday. It appears we will be mostly in
the mid-upper 90s.

The other concern mid-week and beyond is showers and thunderstorms.
The main activity will be in the Sierra, especially south of Lake
Tahoe with a 10-30% chance Wednesday and Thursday. However, there
is plenty of uncertainty as ensemble members of the HREF, GEFS
and ECMWF have quite the spread from nothing to scattered
convection. However, noticing the hot weather that will result in
decent instability during the afternoon hours. Plus there is some
moisture with precipitable water between 0.5-0.75 inches.
Therefore, I`m confident in the development of storms each
afternoon. However, how much precipitation will fall is uncertain,
especially when there are some significant dewpoint depressions in
excess of 30 degrees near the surface. Thus, if anything develops
expect some gusty and erratic wind gusts. Convection looks minimal
on Wednesday, but increases for Thursday. I wouldn`t rule out a
few showers and storms reaching western NV valleys each afternoon.

Models start to diverge beyond Sunday with the approach of the
next upper level trough. However, the trend of warm temperatures
and afternoon convection appears to persist. At least, there are
good indications of slightly cooler weather.

-Crespo

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday afternoon. Skies
will be mostly clear with few low level clouds this afternoon.
Winds will be generally light and VRB in the AM and overnight,
then becoming northerly AOB 10 kts. Low chances for -SHRA/-TSRA
return on Wednesday after 21Z.

Hot conditions starting on Wednesday bring density altitude
concerns for the rest of the week.

-Crespo

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$