302
FXUS65 KREV 262103
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
126 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Isolated storms for portions of western NV this evening and
  overnight. Winds will remain gusty through Saturday across
  ridges.

* Gusty southwest winds and lower humidity bring increased fire
  weather concerns to northeast CA and northwest NV this afternoon.

* Dry conditions and more seasonal temperatures will prevail this
  weekend through the remainder of July although smoke may spread
  across portions of northeast CA and western NV.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* THUNDERSTORMS: Confidence remains unchanged (medium) as HREF
  showed a decrease in the 40 dBZ echo potential overnight, but
  maintains a convective signature for elevated and quick moving
  clouds/showers starting along and south of US-50 late this
  afternoon or early evening and lifting northward into the late
  evening and early morning hours Saturday. Latest satellite
  imagery showed cumulus development beginning over southern Mono
  County which may lead to a few cells through 5 PM before best
  focus shifts eastward into NV this evening. Gusty outflow winds
  to 35+ kts will be a threat with any shower or storm that
  develops with a 10-20% chance for seeing lightning. We
  maintained a 5-10% chance as far west as Hwy 395.

* WINDS: Gusty southwest winds will continue into this evening,
  especially along Hwy 395 and across NE CA/NW NV with most gusts
  25-30 mph, but locally as high a 35 mph for a few hours. As a 70
  kt 250 MB upper jet moves across the Sierra, winds will ramp up
  over the ridges and upper slopes with gusts 50+ mph (locally to 70
  mph at the typical windiest spots). While winds will decrease at
  lower elevations, they may remain elevated on Lake Tahoe and
  across foothill locations overnight and Saturday AM behind the
  exiting shortwave.

* SMOKE: Satellite and Alert cams indicate smoke across parts of
  northeast CA and northwest NV from wildfires (primarily the Park
  and Stockade Canyon wildfires) this afternoon. As winds turn
  back to more west-southwest behind tonight`s shortwave, HRRR
  indicates this smoke drifting farther south into western NV this
  weekend, possibly impacting areas as far south as Fallon and
  Reno by Sunday/Sunday night.

* NEXT WEEK: After seasonal temperatures through the end of July,
  there are indications that the ridge will build near the Four
  Corners and expand westward into the Great Basin per latest
  ensemble clusters. This pattern would likely return temperatures
  to 10 degrees above average with 100+ degrees across western NV
  as we go into August. Also, the high`s position would bring a
  return southerly flow and increasing risk of thunderstorms.

Hohmann

&&

.AVIATION...

* For late this afternoon/tonight, an upper level wave will bring
  a 10-20% chance of storms across W NV, focusing east and north
  of Reno. There is a 10-15% chance for storms at KMMH from 21Z to
  00Z today with a 5% chance of storms at KRNO-KCXP-KMEV after
  27/00Z. Storms may linger past midnight across NW NV as storms
  lift northward.

* SW-W winds with gusts 20-25 kt across most of the main terminals
  with gusts to 40 kt across the ridges through sundown. As a 70
  kt 250 MB jet traverses the Sierra tonight/early Saturday, 700
  MB winds will increase to 30-35 kts with gusts up to 60 kts at
  ridge level. This will lead to increasing LLWS along the eastern
  Sierra from the Tahoe Basin southward to Mammoth Lakes. Leeside
  turbulence may increase to moderate at times along the eastern
  Sierra into far western NV.

* Smoke and haze from local wildfires will produce areas of
  reduced slantwise visibilities from Susanville to Gerlach and
  points north, with high resolution models indicating this smoke
  slowly shifting south toward I-80 in W NV this weekend.

Hohmann

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Afternoon west-southwest breezes to 25-30 mph and low daytime
relative humidity will lead to elevated fire weather concerns
areawide through this evening. Some areas across Lassen and northern
Washoe counties may see a few hours of critical fire weather
conditions, though this threat is too isolated spatially to warrant
the issuance of a Red Flag Warning today.

There is a slight chance for shallow nocturnal convection tonight,
roughly along and east of a line extending from eastern Mineral
County into far northern Washoe County. Isolated showers look to
initiate along this line following sunset before tracking
northeast and out of our region overnight. Thunderstorm chances
are low, but non-zero, with main concerns for gusty outflow winds
given steep low-level lapse rates.

Fire weather concerns diminish this weekend as the cooling trend
continues and overnight RH recoveries improve. For areas north of I-
80, dense smoke concentration from the Park Fire may further reduce
daytime heating and thus limit fire activity for new or existing
fires this weekend. Whitlam

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$