Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 012239
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
239 PM PST Mon Mar 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

Above average high temperatures will prevail this week. It will
be dry except for a chance for light snow showers Wednesday
afternoon and evening in Mono County as low pressure pushes across
southern Nevada. The next chance for mountain snow and valley rain
or rain and snow arrives over the weekend; however, a major storm
is unlikely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Speaking from the point of view of this forecaster, there isn`t
much to get jazzed up about in the short term. High temperatures
will be near average (eastern Sierra) to around 5 degrees above
average (northeast CA and western NV) Tuesday and Wednesday. After
sunny skies today, partly cloudy skies are on tap for Tuesday,
giving way to widespread mostly cloudy conditions Wednesday as
low pressure off the California coast moves across southern
California and Nevada.

As far as precipitation, the low pressure is expected by most
simulations to remain so far south that only a very light Sierra
snowfall south of about Ebbetts Pass is expected at best for later
on Wednesday. Blended probabilities for measurable snow are only
40-55% for the eastern Sierra, with less than a 20% chance for
more than an inch. In addition, given the notable increase in
daytime road heating (which would make any snow melt quickly on
roads) this time of year, very light snowfall rates, and the fact
that trans Sierra passes remain closed, little or no impact is
expected for travel in Mono County Wednesday...especially along
and east of Highway 395. -Snyder

.LONG TERM (Thursday onward)...

* Warm Temps Thursday and Friday: Respectable ridging over the
  Great Basin with light southwesterly flow overhead yields a
  pattern favorable for above normal temperatures. Latest NBM
  guidance showing highs well into the 60s for W Nevada cities and
  near 50 for mountain communities. 90th percentile guidance
  showing upper 60s for W Nevada if we can keep skies sunny with
  that little bit of southwest wind to mix things up. Nowhere near
  records, however, which are in the mid to upper 70s at RNO for
  example.

* Saturday Storm: Quick moving Pacific storm for Friday night
  through Saturday. Current NBM and ensemble guidance still quite
  variable so lower than average confidence on snow and wind
  potentials. Fast motion will limit precip amounts but still enough
  snow for mountain passes to create travel impacts at night or
  early morning. Donner Pass NBM guidance showing 2" most likely
  with 5-6" on the high end scenarios. Further south away from best
  dynamics Mammoth Mtn showing 1" with high-end of 3-4", so not a
  good snow for the eastern Sierra.

* For W Nevada mainly light rain showers with some rain/snow mix
  in the foothills and Virginia City. It looks somewhat shadowed.
  Winds will also ramp up for Saturday but lots of variability in
  ensemble scenarios, ranging from general breezes to about 1 in
  4 members showing potential wind advisory scenario for W Nevada
  and 395 corridor. Official wind forecast kept more conservative
  for time being.

* Next Week: Pattern remains unsettled but the potential for
  storms is far from settled. Large scale trough redevelops off-
  shore but from the look of it there is decent potential of a
  split to our south limiting precip in our area. With that said
  GEFS and ECMWF EPS guidance is quite noisy for next week. Most
  members have something but timing is all over the place.
  Therefore, confidence is below normal even for this long lead
  time. In any event, not seeing major storm signals either for
  wind or precip so whatever we get next week is likely to not be
  a big help for the late season snowpack.

-Chris

&&

.AVIATION...

No significant aviation weather issues for the next 24-36 hours with
upper low offshore diving well to our south leaving the region under
shortwave ridging.

Low end gusty winds this afternoon will subside tonight. Plume of
enhanced southerly winds aloft over northern and central California
could yield some wind shear and mountain wave bumps for TRK/TVL
areas tonight.

Light E/SE flow tomorrow with VFR conditions and scattered to
occasionally broken high altitude clouds passing by on the northern
perimeter of that upper low. Overall a pretty good week for flying
in our area. -Chris

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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