Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
754 FXUS65 KREV 112148 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 248 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will heat up to near season records once again through midweek. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly for Sierra locations south of US-50 through Thursday afternoon. Drier, cooler, and breezier conditions are expected with the arrival of a dry cold front this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Near record heat will continue at least through Wednesday as our high temperatures return into the upper 90s across western Nevada (80s Sierra valleys) with hotter valleys touching the 100 degree mark each afternoon. Overnight lows will also be near record warm territory as lows are expected to run 10-15F above average. This will result in widespread moderate heat risks with isolated major heat risks across the hottest W.Nevada valleys. Afternoon heating could fire a a few showers and isolated thunderstorms today and Wednesday (10-20% chance) across portions of the Sierra, mainly south of US-50, and portions of western Nevada along the Pine Nut Range in Douglas and S.Lyon counties. Thunderstorm chances will continue into Thursday south of US-50 due to enhanced diffluence associated with a closed low tracking across the southwestern U.S. These storms will be capable of small hail, brief heavy rains, and gusty outflow winds (>45 mph). Afternoon zephyr breezes will increase over the next few days with westerly gusts up to 20-30 mph expected Thursday before increasing to 25-35 mph gust with localized areas up to 40 mph. This may result in choppy lakes across the region along with potential crosswind issues for high profile vehicles. The wind increase on Friday is associated with a dry cold frontal passage which will also see poor mid-slope recoveries across W.NV with afternoon RHs dipping into the low teens and upper single digits. This could result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions in areas of receptive fuels across portions of the Sierra Front, northern Washoe County, and the western Nevada Basin and Range. This front will also aid in lowering temperatures back to near season normals by late weekend and into early next week. Fuentes && .AVIATION... VFR conditions continue through Wednesday with light afternoon west breezes prevailing. Temperatures will remain 15-20 degrees above season averages through Thursday which may yield density altitude impacts. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the Pine Nut Range east of KMEV through 02z this afternoon along with a 10-15% chance of -TSRA at KMMH. Other areas will generally see less than a 10% chance of afternoon showers. Storms will be capable of gusts up to 40kts, small hail, and lightning. Precipitation chances on Wednesday will be less than 10% across Sierra and W.NV terminals. Fuentes && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$