027
FXUS65 KREV 150929
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
229 AM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Temperatures cooling to seasonal averages are expected this
weekend. Afternoon breezes today will be followed by another
increase in winds late Sunday and Sunday night due to a secondary
cold front passage, with a few showers possible near the Oregon
border. Monday will be the coolest day of the week, before slow
warming and dry conditions settle in for the rest of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

* Temperatures cooling to near mid-June averages this weekend.

* The next cold front passage for Sunday night will bring
  increased winds and possible isolated fire weather concerns.

* Monday will be the coolest day with highs around 10 degrees
  below average, followed by steady warming through next week.

A reprieve from the heat is in store for Father`s Day weekend as
the 10-day streak of 90+ degrees for most western NV valleys ends
today. For Sierra communities, highs will be mainly in the
lower-mid 70s today and Sunday. We`ll continue to see breezy
conditions today, but Sunday afternoon-evening presents the best
opportunity for more impactful winds in regard to recreation and
fire weather. With the main cold front passage most likely
occurring Sunday night, most areas won`t have the most optimal
setup for peak wind gusts occurring at the warmest and driest
part of the day, but isolated fire weather concerns will be
present after the recent period of hot and dry conditions.

Behind this cold front, northwest-north winds will bring in the
coolest air mass of the month with temperatures only reaching the
lower 70s for western NV valleys and 60s elsewhere Monday. The
potential for showers continues to decrease, with latest guidance
only brushing 10-15% chances for very light showers north of
Cedarville to the OR border early Monday morning. Winds will
decrease across most areas during the day Monday, but the US-95
and US-6 corridors of Mineral/southern Mono counties that respond
more readily to north winds will likely see enhanced gusts of 30+
mph through the afternoon.

Monday night will be on the chilly side with lows in the 40s for
most western NV communities, but some rural/outlying valleys
could dip into the 30s. The typically colder Sierra valleys have
a good potential of lows below freezing, so it would be a good
idea to protect any cold-sensitive garden vegetation in these
areas Monday night.

A general dry trough pattern remains near the west coast for next
week, with a slow rise in 500 mb heights allowing for a steady
warmup from Tuesday onward. By late next week, highs could push
above 90 in lower elevations, although the higher potential for
more substantial warming is projected for the June 22-23 weekend.
By that time, the ensemble guidance favors rebuilding a high
pressure ridge over the southwest US, expanding into much of the
central-eastern Great Basin. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

* Widespread VFR conditions will continue today with typical
  afternoon breezes to 20-25kt after 19Z-21Z. Breezes will gradually
  taper off after sundown, then transition to overnight diurnally
  terrain driven flows. Temperatures trending cooler this weekend
  will dampen afternoon density altitude concerns for warmer western
  NV terminals. General aviation and helicopter OPS should still
  check density altitudes for their respective areas.

* Look once more for return of enhanced W-SW breezes Sunday with
  wind gusts to 25-30 kts for main terminal sites. Also, FL100
  winds will increase to 30-35 kts Sunday evening after 00-03Z
  that heighten chances (15-20%) for LLWS and moderate turbulence
  over Sierra terminals (KSVE/KTRK/KTVL/KMMH) through Sunday
  night. LLWS and turbulence look to subside after 12-15Z Monday.
  -Amanda

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Typical afternoon breezes, prevailing dry conditions, and
receptive fine fuels will bring elevated to locally critical fire
weather conditions for much of the region through Sunday.
Overnight RH recoveries this weekend, as projected by higher
confidence blended guidance, will remain poor to marginal for the
valley floors and mid-slope areas of western Nevada, with early
morning RH across the region expected to struggle only into the
low 40% each night. Marginal improvements to RH recoveries,
however, are projected across the Sierra Front overnight Sunday
into Monday morning as early morning maximum RHs of 50-70%
respond to the cooler early morning temperatures.

A weak upper trough will induce a wind shift from W to NW/N
tonight, which may impact any new or existing ignitions across
western Nevada. Enhanced Sunday afternoon breezes coupled with
minimum RHs ranging between 10-15% ahead of another cold frontal
passage will feature the potential for periods of isolated
critical fire weather conditions once again for western Nevada.
Overall, however, expect elevated fire weather conditions
regionwide through Sunday. -Amanda

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$