453
FNUS75 KREV 151924
FWSREV

Spot Forecast for Bear Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Reno NV
1224 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 PDT on September 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National
Weather Service in Reno.

.DISCUSSION...

* An incoming low pressure system and cold front will provide
  increasing chances for showers with wetting rain on Monday with
  a 15% chance of isolated thunderstorms.

* Much colder on Monday with high temperatures more typical of
  late October.

* A secondary low pressure system will provide additional chances
  for wetting rains on Wednesday.


.MONDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy and unseasonably cool. 40% chance of
                    showers and a 15% chance of thunderstorms after 4am.
                    Then a 60% chance of showers with a 15% chance of an
                    isolated thunderstorm after 2100. Rainfall amounts
                    of 0.10 to 0.20 possible through late afternoon.
                    40% chance of localized amounts up to 0.50" in any
                    thunderstorm activity.
Temperature.........Valleys: 49-53,  Slopes: 54-57.
RH..................Valleys: 60-65%, Slopes: 50-55%
20-Foot Winds.......South-southeast drainage winds 5-10 mph in in the morning, then
                    becoming west 8-12 mph with gusts up to 18 mph.
LAL.................1.
Chc Wetting Rain....35% increasing to 55% in the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......5000-6000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Light winds becoming west-northwest around 15 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Ventilation.........Poor to good.
Haines Index........2 to 3.


.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Cloudy. 60% chance showers in the evening and overnight.
Temperature.........Valleys: 32-35,  Slopes: 35-40.
RH..................Valleys: 95-100%, Slopes: 85-95%
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5-10 mph.
LAL.................1.
Chc Wetting Rain....75% decreasing to 35% overnight.
Mixing Height.......1800-2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15-20 mph.
Ventilation.........Good to fair.
Haines Index........2.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy. 15% chance of isolated
                    showers.
Temperature.........Max 57-62.
RH..................Min 50-60%.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5-10 mph with gusts up to 15 mph.
LAL.................1.
Chc Wetting Rain....5%.
Mixing Height.......4000-5000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 10-15 mph increasing to 15-20 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Ventilation.........Marginal to very good.
Haines Index........2.

$$

Forecaster...Fuentes
Requested by...Dan Patterson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2422487.0/REV
.DELDT 09/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL daniel.patterson@usda.gov