278
FNUS75 KREV 171929
FWSREV

Spot Forecast for Bear Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Reno NV
1229 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 PDT on September 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National
Weather Service in Reno.

.DISCUSSION...

* A good chance of wetting rain arrives on Wednesday with a slight
  chance for thunderstorms. Best chances (70-90%) are in the
  afternoon and evening with a 25-30% chance for thunderstorms.
  Latest projections show 0.15-0.25 inches, but locally heavier
  amounts over 0.25 inches could occur with storms.

* Chances (25-60%) for showers continue through Thursday with the
  best chances seen during the afternoon hours along with around a
  20% chance of thunderstorms. Additional QPF on Thursday looks to
  be up to around 0.15 inches.

* Drier and slowly warmer conditions are expected late week into
  the weekend with no significant wind.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and a slight
                    chance of thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
                    Rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
Temperature.........40-43 at forecast start...Max 58-60.
RH..................81-84% at forecast start...Min 56-64%.
20-Foot Winds.......Winds southeast at 1 mph at forecast
                    start...otherwise Upslope 3-7 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 1100, then 3.
Chc Wetting Rain....5% increasing to 60% in the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......4200-5200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Light winds becoming southeast around 10 mph in
                    the late morning and early afternoon, then
                    becoming light late in the afternoon.
Ventilation.........Poor to fair.
Haines Index........2 at forecast start...max 2.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms in the
                    evening. Rain showers likely in the evening,
                    then chance of showers overnight.
Temperature.........Min 42-44.
RH..................Max 90-96%.
20-Foot Winds.......Downslope 2-6 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
LAL.................3 until 2000, then 1.
Chc Wetting Rain....65% decreasing to 20% overnight.
Mixing Height.......900-1400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Light winds.
Ventilation.........Marginal to poor.
Haines Index........2.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Slight
                    chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 59-61.
RH..................Min 43-47%.
20-Foot Winds.......Upslope 3-7 mph becoming east around 7 mph late
                    in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 1100, then 2.
Chc Wetting Rain....10% increasing to 35% in the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......5300-6300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Light winds becoming east 10-15 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Ventilation.........Poor to good.
Haines Index........2.

$$
Forecaster...Chyba
Requested by...Dan Patterson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2422633.0/REV
.DELDT 09/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Daniel.patterson@usda.gov